Sunday is a great day to bet on some baseball, and we have another full slate of games available this week. That includes a nine-game main slate at 1:35 p.m. ET, three late afternoon contests, and Sunday Night Baseball.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.
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Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies:
The Pick: Over 11.5 runs (-115)
Coors Field has yet to truly heat up this season. The over has gone just 21-22 through the Rockies’ first 43 home games, and it’s just 93-105-7 dating back to the start of 2021. Part of that has to do with the Rockies’ offense, which has been one of the worst in baseball using park-adjusted metrics.
However, Coors Field typically heats up as the summer does, and the ball has been flying recently. The Rockies and Tigers managed just six combined runs on Saturday, but there had been an average of more than 15 runs in the Rockies’ previous three home games.
The Rockies and Tigers don’t inspire a ton of confidence with their offenses, but both teams have exploitable matchups on Sunday. The Rockies will be facing Matt Manning, who has struggled in limited action this season. He’s pitched to a 4.15 ERA across three starts, but his 5.55 xERA and 6.40 FIP suggest he’s been worse than advertised. Pitching in the thin Rocky Mountain air could be a recipe for regression.
The Rockies will turn to Connor Seabold, who has a 5.98 ERA and a 5.63 FIP this season. He’s spent time as a starter and a reliever, and unsurprisingly, his numbers have been worse when he starts games. When he ultimately departs, he’ll be handing the ball to a bullpen that has the fourth-worst ERA in the majors.
Add it all up, and I’m expecting plenty of runs on Sunday.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels:
The Pick: Angels Moneyline (-110)
Sunday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Angels features one of the best pitching matchups of the day. The Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen to the mound, and he’s started to get some respect over the past few seasons. He finished fifth in the NL Cy Young award voting last season after posting a 2.54 ERA while leading the league in WHIP.
Gallen is off to another strong start this season, but some of his advanced metrics have taken a slight turn. His xERA has jumped all the way to 3.80, largely due to subpar Statcast data. He ranks in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity, 17th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 38th percentile in barrel rate, so batters have made excellent contact when they’ve put the bat on the ball. Gallen isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher, so that happens more than you might think.
On the other side, Reid Detmers is quietly having an excellent season for the Angels. Most of his metrics are slightly worse than Gallen’s, but he has averaged an outstanding 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings.
The pitching matchup between these two seems pretty even, but the Angels have a clear edge offensively. They’re fourth in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, while the Diamondbacks are 22nd against southpaws. With the Angels also having the benefit of home-field advantage, I’m not sure why they’re only -110 in this spot.
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets:
The Pick: Mets Moneyline (-125)
Sunday Night Baseball features a matchup between two teams headed in opposite directions. The Mets have been a massive disappointment, going 7-19 in June, while the Giants have made a surge up the standings. They went 18-8 in June, putting them in the thick of a very competitive NL West.
However, the Mets did manage to win on Saturday, and they probably should’ve won on Friday, too. They had a two-run lead in the eighth inning, but David Robertson blew his third save in his past six chances. The Mets’ bullpen has been an issue all season, but their starting pitching has shown some improvement of late. That could be a big development.
David Peterson will get the ball for the Mets on Sunday, and he was so bad to start the year that he spent six weeks in Triple-A. However, he looked much improved in his return to the rotation. He pitched six scoreless innings in his last outing, and you could make a strong argument he’s been unlucky for most of the year. His ERA sits at 7.00, but his xFIP is all the way down at 3.43. He’s still striking out plenty of batters — he owns K/9 of at least 10.0 for the second-straight year — but he’s been absolutely crushed when batters have made contact.
Fortunately, the Giants represent a great matchup for Peterson. They rank third in strikeout rate vs. southpaws this season, and they’ve been significantly worse than they’ve been against right-handers. They’re merely 25th in wRC+, so it’s a great spot for Peterson to keep the momentum going. If he can do that, the Mets should be able to score enough of Ross Stripling to get the win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.