Angst levels are sure to be off the charts this weekend, as the scuffling New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals collide for an interleague series with both of these traditional powers desperately needing some positive momentum. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium in St. Louis. Luis Severino (1-2, 5.25 ERA) gets the ball for New York, while the Cardinals send young lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 5.62) to the mound.
This one is just about a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Cardinals at -115 and the Yankees at -105. The run total is set at 9.5.
Yankees-Cardinals picks: Friday, June 30
Injury report
Out: OF Willie Calhoun (quadriceps), SP Nestor Cortes (shoulder), OF Aaron Judge (toe), RP Ryan Weber (forearm), OF Greg Allen (hip), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (elbow), RP Lou Trivino (elbow), SP Carlos Rodon (back), SP Frankie Montas (shoulder), RP Scott Effross (elbow), SP Luis Gil (elbow)
Cardinals
Day to day: SP Jack Flaherty (hip)
Out: RP Ryan Helsley (forearm), INF Jose Ferman (quad)
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino vs. Matthew Liberatore
Severino got a much-needed bounce-back performance last weekend, holding the high-powered Texas Rangers to just five hits over six shutout innings. The righty had gotten shelled this month prior to that, with a whopping 9.16 ERA over his four previous starts — with a hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected ERA all in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Severino’s fastball velocity has slowly crept back up into the high 90s, but his stuff still isn’t quite looking right, although both he and the Yankees insist that the shoulder injury that cost him the first two months of this season isn’t an issue.
Liberatore got the call up to the Majors back in May after a great start at Triple-A, but the lefty has had a rough time with the Cardinals so far this year. He gave up four runs (though none of them were earned) on four hits and two walks in just 2.1 innings against the Chicago Cubs in London last weekend, the fourth time in his last five starts that he’s allowed at least four runs. The lefty’s curveball remains a real weapon (.136 batting average against, 32.5% whiff rate) but teams are absolutely teeing off on his fastball, making it tough for him to get ahead in counts and set up that hook.
Over/Under pick
This is a real “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” conundrum, as two pitchers that have gotten rocked all month will face off against struggling offenses with a very big run total. In the end, I’m taking the over tonight: The Yankees have fared much better against lefties than righties this year, which should set them up for success against Liberatore, and if they can put up a few runs then we should be in good shape. The Cardinals still have more than enough firepower to rough up Severino if he’s as hittable as he’s been over his past few starts, and St. Louis has cleared this number in seven of its last nine.
Pick: 9.5
Moneyline pick
I don’t have a ton of faith in either of these starters, and I think St. Louis’ lineup is far deeper and more dangerous right now than New York’s. The Yankees’ advantage in the bullpen makes me nervous — the Cardinals have already blown a whopping 16 saves so far this year — but Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Co. should be able to build an early lead, and we just haven’t seen enough from this New York lineup to trust them to keep pace.
Pick: Cardinals