The Boston Red Sox (40-42) and Toronto Blue Jays (45-37) will begin a big three-game series in the AL East on Friday night. First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. After being pulled with knee discomfort during his last start, James Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA) will be able to make his next turn in the rotation for Boston, while the Jays roll with red-hot righty Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.60).
The Blue Jays are -140 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Red Sox +120 underdogs with the over/under set at nine.
Red Sox-Blue Jays picks: Friday, June 30
Injury report
Red Sox
Day to day: RP Joely Rodriguez (shoulder)
Out: SS Yu Chang (wrist), RP Richard Bleier (shoulder), SS Pablo Reyes (abdomen), RP John Schreiber (shoulder), C Reese McGuire (oblique), SP Corey Kluber (shoulder), SP Tanner Houck (face), SS Adalberto Mondesi (knee), RP Wyatt Mills (elbow), 2B Trevor Story (elbow), SP Chris Sale (shoulder), RP Zack Kelly (elbow)
Blue Jays
Day to day: RP Yimi Garcia (knee), RP Zach Pop (hamstring), CF Kevin Kiermaier (back)
Out: RP Adam Cimber (shoulder), RP Chad Green (elbow), SP Hyun-Jin Ryu (elbow)
Starting pitchers
James Paxton vs. Jose Berrios
Paxton will make his ninth start of the season, his first with Boston. In his most recent outing, Paxton allowed one run on two hits and no walks with three strikeouts over four innings in a loss to the Chicago White Sox, being forced to leave early due to discomfort in his right knee that apparently flared up in his previous start against the Minnesota Twins. If the lefty is healthy, he’s been excellent this year for the Red Sox, with a high-90s fastball and wipeout cutter.
Berrios will make start No. 17 of the season, and he’s enjoyed something of a renaissance of late, with a 2.34 ERA over his last seven outings. In his last start, he gave up three runs (two earned) on six hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Oakland Athletics.
Over/Under pick
Both starters have done fairly well this season, but there is enough to like about the offenses in this spot to side with the over. Both lineups rank inside the top eight in OPS and should exceed this run total, especially if Paxton isn’t quite himself.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
It feels like this one could go either way, so it’s not crazy to just go with the team getting the higher payout and side with Boston. Paxton will put the Red Sox in position to pick up a victory, and the offense will do enough for them to take the opening game in the series.
Pick: Red Sox