We’re about to embark on a LONG holiday weekend. Maybe you’re looking to get some extra green before you take off for your holiday excursions? Well, let’s look at some bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Game Total under 4 runs through 1st 5 innings -125
We have a very good pitching matchup tonight in Seattle against Shane McClanahan and Bryce Miller. I’m a big Mariners guy but let me tell you, this team STINKS against lefties. They enter tonight with a .306 wOBA, a 99 wRC+ and a 27.4% K%, which is the second-highest in the league. McClanahan hasn’t been as efficient with his strikeouts as in the past, as his 9.6 K/9 is currently the lowest of his career, but he has been at his best with men on base. He’s currently stranding 90% of the runners that have reached base against him, which is an absurd number. Look at this breakdown in different situations: with the bases empty, a .319 wOBA. With men on base, a .208 wOBA. Runners in scoring position? Ha. Easy. A .157 wOBA. He’s been that good in 2023.
On the other side, Miller, has been nearly untouchable the first time through the batting order. He currently sports a 1.93 ERA, a .236 wOBA and a 1.69 FIP in that situation. Of the 24 total earned runs allowed, only five have come the first time through. He’s also pitched very well at home through 29.2 innings, owner of a .250 wOBA and a 3.03 ERA. With the Mariners struggles against lefties and Miller coming out strong, I think this goes under through the first five.
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Alec Marsh over 2.5 walks +150
I’m going a bit on a limb here betting against a pitcher making his major league debut and not knowing how he’ll react. However, when you look at his minor league numbers, I think we have a legitimate shot at winning this bet. Marsh is being called up to take the spot of Jordan Lyles, who was scratched due to illness. He’s been in the minors since 2019 and spent time in both AA and AAA ball this season. In each level he’s pitched (with the exception of rookie ball in 2019) Marsh has a BB/9 of at least 4.2. His control is not his strong point. Now, in his debut in KC, he’ll take on one of the most patient teams in the majors, the Dodgers. Against righties, the Dodgers own the third-highest BB% at 10.2%. Looking at tonight’s projected lineup, the top four hitters in the lineup, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Max Muncy, all have a BB% of at least 9.5%. With this line set at +150, I’m more than willing to take a shot here for a pitcher with shaky command.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
The Pick: Marcus Semien over 1.5 bases -105
Semien and the Rangers will face Astros starter Ronel Blanco. He’s recently been stretched out to start and now has four under his belt. He hasn’t found much success as a starter, tossing 23 innings while allowing 12 runs on 19 hits with a .342 wOBA and a 6.84 FIP. What’s been most concerning is the number of home runs he’s allowed over that span with seven. He’s gone three straight starts with allowing two home runs, giving him a 2.7 HR/9. Righties have tagged him for a .381 wOBA overall, putting Semien in a good spot to go over 1.5 bases. Getting this close to even money adds to the appeal in 43 of the 81 games played, good for 53% of his season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
