We’re 35-28 on article plays for the season, which, in my head, reads like a Tecmo Super Bowl score. Well, in keeping with that analogy, let’s aim to add a field goal to the win column tonight — preferably one from Pete Stoyanovich. Go Dolphins.
It’s a small MLB slate. Let’s dive in.
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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Max Scherzer is starting to look like himself again and a big reason for that is strikeouts. Remember when the veteran RHP struggled across his first five starts of the season, posting an ugly 6.27 FIP? Well, would it surprise you to learn that Scherzer’s strikeout rate (20.8%) and K/BB ratio (2.0) were horrendous by his standards at that point in time? Conversely, Scherzer is once again racking up the swings and misses in June, as he’s cleared this prop in five of his past six outings. His strikeout rate within that stretch? A healthy 29.4%.
Backing the over on this prop isn’t just about Scherzer, though. It’s also got a lot to do with his opponent. The Brewers simultaneously own the National League’s highest strikeout rate for June (27.0%) and the 2023 as a whole (25.8%). Heck, let’s simply use last night as an example: Kodai Senga registered eight strikeouts and 14 whiffs in only five innings of work. With Milwaukee in the batter’s box, Scherzer might have a chance to crack double-digit strikeouts on Thursday.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Phillies ML (-115)
It would appear that Kyle Schwarber has taught the rest of his teammates how to absolutely dominate the month of June. The Phillies are arguably the hottest team in baseball at the moment, having secured a victory in 17 of their last 22 games. They’re a squad that’s also thrived when on the road, as evidenced by a 10-1 record in their last 11 contests away from Philadelphia. Like I said, it’s good times in the City of Brotherly Love.
The Phillies can thank Taijuan Walker for this recent torrid stretch, as well. The veteran RHP didn’t get off to the best start in 2023, yet he’s allowed only two earned runs across his last 26.0 innings thrown. Moreover, Walker’s maintained a pristine 1.71 ERA and 0.98 WHIP dating back to May 21, a stretch where Philadelphia is 6-1 when the 30-year-old takes the mound. Kyle Hendricks has been equally impressive for the Cubs, yet Chicago’s struggled to an 89 wRC+ over the last 30 days. I don’t see that lineup having much success against Walker.
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130)
Obviously, you’ll have to accept a little juice when betting the over on this prop — it did open at -120 — but I like it so much that I can’t help myself. There’s really not even that much to say about it. Wainwright has simply been awful since making his debut in 2023, posting a 6.56 ERA and a 6.82 xERA in his nine starts. Crucially, for the direct purposes of this wager, the veteran has also managed to throw six innings only one time in those nine outings. That’s right. This prop is 1-8 to the under.
Has Houston been as good at scoring runs this season as it has the past half-decade? No. Yet even with Yordan Alvarez on the IL, the team has mustered the league’s ninth-best wRC+ in June (107). Heck, Jose Altuve returned to the lineup on Wednesday, and the Astros immediately racked up 10 runs. It should basically be batting practice for the reigning MLB Champions on Thursday night.
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