For most of this MLB season, the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks have been the class of their respective leagues. On Monday, the Diamondbacks picked up the first head-to-head win between the two clubs in the form of an 8-4. Now they’ll look to make it two in a row over the Rays when they send Zach Davies (1-4, 7.82 ERA) to the mound against Zach Eflin (9-3, 3.35 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.
The Rays are -155 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Diamondbacks are +135. The total is set at 9.5.
Rays-Diamondbacks picks: Wednesday, June 28
Injury report
Rays
Day to day: INF Taylor Walls (mid-back tightness), SP Shane McClanahan (mid-back tightness)
Out: 2B Brandon Lowe (lower back inflammation), RP Andrew Kittredge (Tommy John Surgery)
Diamondbacks
Out: Merrill Kelly (lower right leg blood clot), RP Cole Sulser (strained right teres major), RP Mark Melancon (right shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Zach Eflin vs. Zach Davies
Eflin, who is in the first year of a three-year, $40 million contract he signed in the offseason is off to good first year with the Rays, and enters tonight’s start with a record of 9-3 and an ERA of 3.35. That said, Eflin’s been a completely different pitcher on the road, as he has a 5.08 ERA in 33 2/3 road innings compared to a 2.17 ERA in 49 2/3 innings at home. Eflin’s gone six innings in his last two starts (allowing two and three runs, respectively), and he ranks in the 95th percentile in walk rate and the 86th percentile in expected ERA.
When the Diamondbacks signed Davies to a one-year, $5 million contract last offseason, the did so in the hopes that he’d be able to replicate some of his best years with the Milwaukee Brewers. Instead, Davies has looked like one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and has recorded an ERA of 7.82 in 35 2/3 innings.
Davies has been particularly bad as of late, having allowed at least six runs in each of his last three starts, with the low-water mark coming when he allowed eight earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Guardians. He ranks in the 16th percentile or worse in exit velocity, expected batting average and strikeout rate.
Over/Under pick
These two teams cruised to hit the over yesterday, and I’m betting that happens for a second day in a row. As mentioned above, Eflin has looked like a different pitcher on the road, while Davies has looked bad all season. These two offenses should feast tonight.
Pick: Over 9.5
Moneyline pick
While I think the pitching matchup isn’t as lopsided as it looks on paper, the Rays are the more talented team, which I think makes the difference tonight.
Pick: Rays