Tuesday is typically a great day for baseball, and this Tuesday is no exception. All 30 teams will be in action, including a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets:
The Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+125)
At this point, I’m running out of ways to describe the Mets’ ineptitude. The team with the largest payroll in baseball history fell to eight games under .500 after Monday’s loss, and they’ve dropped 16 of their last 21 contests. They’re struggling in all facets of the game, and it’s hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel.
Things don’t figure to get any easier for them on Tuesday. They’re starting David Peterson, who has spent the last six weeks in the minor leagues trying to turn things around. He posted a 4.86 ERA during his seven Triple-A starts, and while that’s an improvement from his 8.08 mark in the majors, it’s still nothing to get excited about. Peterson has undoubtedly been unlucky – he owns a .404 BABIP and a 25.0% HR/FB rate – but his xERA still sits at an unimpressive 5.16.
Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense will have to figure out Julio Teheran, who is seemingly back from the dead. He’s been out of baseball since 2020 basically, but the former All-Star has pitched to a 1.53 ERA through six starts with Milwaukee. Unlike Peterson, he’s clearly been on the good side of variance, but his 3.29 xERA is still quality. Pitching in front of the Brewers’ outstanding defense and bullpen doesn’t hurt, either.
As long as the Mets continue to get respect from the sportsbooks, they’re going to be worth fading on a near-daily basis. They’re officially a sinking ship.
Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals:
The Pick: Astros Moneyline (-120)
The Astros’ offense is still playing without Yordan Alvarez, giving them a massive hole in the middle of their lineup. They’ve struggled without him, but they did bounce back with an extra-innings win over the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball.
Jose Abreu went yard in that contest, and he’s started to show some signs of life. The former AL MVP got off to a dreadful start with his new team, but he’s racked up a 115 wRC+ with four homers in June. Abreu returning to his former glory would be a huge development for an offense that needs help.
Fortunately, the Astros remain the best pitching team in all of baseball, and they’ll have one of their top starters on the mound on Tuesday. Framber Valdez has pitched to a sparkling 2.27 ERA this season, and his advanced metrics suggest he’s been roughly as good as advertised.
The Cardinals are a team that has historically feasted on left-handed pitching, but they haven’t been nearly as impressive in that split this season. They’re just 14th in wRC+ vs. Southpaws, making them roughly league average. Valdez also isn’t your typical left-hander, so I’m not expecting a ton of progression from them on Tuesday.
The Astros will also be facing a left-hander in Jordan Montgomery, who is a good but not great pitcher. His ERA and leading indicators are all in the high threes, giving the Astros a clear edge on the mound. They’ve also been the better offense vs. Southpaws for the year, and even without Alvarez, I like their chances in this spot.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers:
The Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+160)
The Tigers have had another rough season, but they managed to win Monday’s series opener vs. a very good Rangers squad. They’ll have an opportunity to make it two in a row against the disappointing Martin Perez.
Perez posted the best season of his career with the Rangers in 2022, posting a 2.89 ERA across just under 200 innings. That represented a massive deviation from previous years – he has a 4.43 career ERA – and it seems like he’s turned back into a pumpkin. Perez has posted a 4.38 ERA and a 4.99 xERA so far this season, and his strikeouts have plummeted to less than six per nine innings.
This sets up as a strong matchup for Detroit, who has been better against left-handed pitching dating back to the start of last year. They’re still not an elite offense by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re not nearly as bad as they are against right-handers.
Matt Manning will make his third start of the season for the Tigers and his first since early April. Manning was a bright spot for the Tigers in 2022, with the former top prospect posting a 3.43 ERA across 63 innings. Manning was ranked as high as the No. 12 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs in 2021, so the talent is clearly there. Ultimately, this seems like a strong enough price tag to roll the dice on Detroit.
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All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.