Only six games taking place tonight, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We’re going to go over a few bets I like that you can place on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Reds team total over 4.5 runs -120
Everyone is on the Reds bandwagon (it’s fun, they’re fun, they deserve it) but the stats are also there for them in particular matchups. Yes, they’re mashing everything they see right now but against lefties, they’ve been doing this all season long. Coming into tonight, they have a .350 wOBA to go with a 113 wRC+. Trust me, they smash in these type of matchups. It should continue against Cole Irvin, who is somehow still in the Orioles rotation. For a team that is heading in the right direction, it feels a bit odd that they continue to run out a pitcher who has a 7.71 ERA with an xERA of 8.99. His last two starts were fine, I suppose, but it was against the Cubs and Royals. Now he’ll have a real test against a team that can hit lefties for power.
Oh, if you were blindly betting the Reds to go over 4.5 runs (which I would never advise you to do, this is simply making a point about how good their offense has been) the last time you would have lost was back on June 16. This team has gone over 4.5 runs in eight straight games and has a damn good chance of doing it nine times tonight.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
The Pick: Game Total over 9 runs -110
A lot of this has to do with Matthew Boyd taking the mound for the Tigers. His advanced stats show he hasn’t been as bad as it seems, sporting a 5.37 ERA with a xERA of 4.02 and a 4.25 FIP. Still, these aren’t great numbers and we’ve seen him struggle against the Rangers once already. Almost a month to the day, Boyd faced the Rangers and allowed five runs on five hits and four walks through six innings. He’s been roughed up in almost every start since then, allowing at least four runs in two of his next four starts. In fact, since that start against the Rangers, Boyd has a 4.91 ERA, allowing 12 runs on 22 hits through 22 innings. Facing the league leaders in runs against lefties, I like this spot for the Rangers.
The Tigers could also provide some offense as well. They’ll go up against Andrew Heaney, who has been on the right side of luck lately. His 3.98 ERA is accompanied by a 4.61 xERA and a 4.90 FIP. Heaney has been bailed out by the defense behind him on numerous occasions and it’s going to come to head at somepoint. Between this and Boyd’s likely struggle for the second time, I like this total to go over.
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Josh Jung over 1.5 bases +115
Sticking with this game, I like Jung to go over 1.5 bases for the 32nd time this season. He’s been smashing left-handed pitching and comes into this game with a .430 wOBA and a 180 wRC+ against them. To take that even further, Jung is hitting .400 at home against lefties with five of his 12 hits against them going for extra bases. Even if Jung doesn’t go over this total on one hit, he’s had multiple hits in 21 of his 74 games played, good for 28% of the season. I was surprised to see this at +115, adding to the appeal of taking this bet tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
