Sunday is a great day to bet on some baseball, and we have another full slate of games available this week. That includes a 10-game main slate at 1:35 p.m. ET, two late afternoon contests, and Sunday Night Baseball.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.
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Texas Rangers at New York Yankees:
The Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-115)
The Yankees‘ offense has been a major problem recently. They managed to win Saturday’s matchup vs. the Rangers, but it was a 1-0 victory where their only run came on a solo homer from someone who started the year in Triple-A. Aaron Judge remains out of the lineup, while Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and most of their veterans continue to struggle at the dish.
Things don’t figure to get any easier Sunday vs. Nathan Eovaldi, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 2.80 ERA, and while his advanced metrics are a bit less impressive, they’re still very good. Eovaldi mowed down the Yankees in their first meeting this season, pitching a complete game shutout with eight strikeouts while allowing just three baserunners.
So why take the Yankees? The easy answer is Gerrit Cole. As good as Eovaldi has been for the Rangers this season, he’s still not Cole. Cole has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past half-decade, and he’s put together another outstanding season in 2023. He’s gone 8-1 with a 2.64 ERA, and the Yankees are 12-4 in games where he takes the bump.
I also think the Yankees will snap out of their offensive funk eventually, but it’s simply too tempting to pass on Cole at essentially a coin-flip price.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants:
The Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+110)
The Giants have been red-hot recently. They’ve won nine of their past 10 games, including each of the first two games of their series vs. the Diamondbacks. They’ve moved to just 1.5 games behind the Diamondbacks for the lead in a highly competitive NL West. Even with the Padres disappointing in 2023, the division still boasts three of the top four records in the National League.
The Giants’ recent surge has caused them to become a bit overvalued in the betting market, especially with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound. DeSclafani isn’t a bad pitcher – he owns a 4.38 ERA and a 4.49 xERA this season – but he’s definitely not a pitcher that moves the needle for betting purposes.
The Diamondbacks have been a strong offensive team this season, ranking eighth in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. They got to DeSclafani for three runs in just five innings in their first meeting this season, and they were able to secure the victory. They should have no problems scoring runs once again on Sunday.
Ryne Nelson will be on the bump for the Diamondbacks, and he’s undoubtedly a worse starter than DeSclafani. The Giants’ offense is also capable of doing damage against right-handed pitchers, but they’re a bit more hit-or-miss. They have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in that split, so they can falter at times. Ultimately, I’m willing to trust the longer track record of the Diamondbacks as opposed to the recent stretch for the Giants, especially at better-than-even money.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Pick: Astros Moneyline (+105)
Tony Gonsolin is a pitcher that I will continue to fade as much as possible. There is arguably no pitcher in baseball with a wider gap between his traditional stats and his advanced metrics. Gonsolin’s ERA sits at 2.92 for the year, but his xERA is at 4.37 and his xFIP is at 4.97. He’s benefitted tremendously from elite batted-ball luck (.194 BABIP) and homer luck (6.6% HR/FB rate), so he’s a pitcher that screams regression moving forward.
That regression showed up in Gonsolin’s last start, with the Dodgers’ hurler surrendering seven runs in less than six innings. Gonsolin has actually allowed at least three earned runs in three of his past five outings, so he’s already started to show some cracks in his armor.
Hunter Brown will get the ball for the Astros, and he’s lived up to his lofty expectations at the MLB level. He entered 2023 as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he’s responded with a 3.78 ERA and a 3.54 xERA across 14 starts. He’s also striking out 10 batters per nine innings, so he looks the part of a high-end MLB starter.
The Astros being without Yordan Alvarez is a big blow for their offense, but I give them the edge on the mound. That’s enough to roll the dice on them as small underdogs.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.