A full slate of games are on the schedule tonight, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. We’re going to go over a couple of bets I like that you can place on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Matt Olson over 2.5 H/R/RBI -105
On a normal basis, I usually tend to stay away from going over 2.5 H/R/RBI. A lot has to happen (or just a home run) for a player to hit a combination of three of these to win. But, the Braves recently slid Olson down in the order and it’s been paying off for him. In six games since making the change, Olson has already knocked in seven runners. The amount of traffic on the basepaths gives him ample opportunities for RBI. He should see plenty of that tonight when the Braves face Luke Weaver. He hasn’t been bad, he’s been downright awful at Great American Ball Park. Through 26 innings, Weaver has a .380 wOBA with a 6.35 FIP and eight of the 13 home runs he’s allowed.
Weaver has never been strong against left-handed bats. His numbers throughout his career reflect that and he currently has a .373 wOBA and a 5.86 FIP against them. The strikeout numbers against them aren’t there either, as he has just a 5.9 K/9 against lefties compared to a 9.3 K/9 to righties. I think this is a great spot for Olson to go over this number in what should be another strong offensive showing by the Braves.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Astros moneyline +125
It’s not often that we see the Astros as underdogs. If this line holds, this will be only the 20th time this season through 75 games. I understand it’s the Dodgers but I don’t feel as if the Astros should be underdogs to a rookie pitcher. Not to mention, this Dodgers offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders lately. Over the past week, they’ve played five games and scored a total of 12 runs. 12. They’re slashing .214/.284/.283 over that span with a 24.6% K% and only a 6.8% BB%.
On the hill for the Astros will be JP France. He’s been excellent on the road where he boasts a 1.88 EA with a .268 wOBA and a 3.77 FIP. He’s thrown his best baseball in June since being called up, holding opponents to a .262 wOBA. With the recent stumble of the Dodgers offense and a France pitching well, I like backing the Astros as the underdogs.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Zach Davies over 2.5 earned runs allowed
I was surprised to see this line at -105. Davies has been a disaster lately and has allowed 15 runs over his last two starts, spanning 6.2 innings. Sure, you can point out that “only” 12 of them were earned, but it’s safe to say that Davies is struggling to generate outs at this point. Those two starts came against the Guardians and Phillies, two offenses I’m not exactly looking to avoid at this point. Now he’ll take on the Giants, who have been one of the best scoring teams as of late. They’re second in the league in runs scored over the last week with 44, which is an average of 6.2 per game.
One of Davies biggest issues has been against left-handed bats. The Giants can go very left-handed heavy when facing a righty. We’ll see some combination of guys like Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Conforto within the first five batters Davies will face. Against southpaws, Davies has a .378 wOBA with a 4.15 FIP and only a 6.8 K/9.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
