I’m not an idiot. I know that tonight is the NBA Draft. Heck, there’s a far better chance that I’ll be watching Adam Silver awkwardly hug grown men than really focusing in on a Royals or Pirates game. But who said you have to watch your bets? That’s what the DraftKings app is for, people.
We’re sitting at 35-26 (+11.2u) for the season on article plays. Let’s find some winners on this evening’s slate.
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
We hit on this prop last week and I’m not above going back to the well. Obviously we’re dealing with small sample sizes, but I’m ready to call Woo an elite strikeout pitcher. The rookie RHP has struck out 20 in his 12.1 innings of work at the MLB level, numbers which translate into a tasty 37.7% strikeout rate. It’s not smoke and mirrors, either. Woo has a massive 16.0% swinging strike rate in his three appearances, while he also managed a 34.3% strikeout rate in his nine starts at Double-A earlier this season. This is just who he is.
The caveat here is that the Yankees aren’t the White Sox. Woo struck out nine last Friday, but it needs to be noted that Chicago has baseball’s highest chase rate in the month of June (38.4%). In fact, they have that distinction by a very wide margin. Conversely, New York currently sits 20th in chase rate at a more modest 32.8%. Still, the team’s 23.0% strikeout rate since June 1 isn’t amazing, meaning Woo should have little trouble racking up swings and misses.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Pirates ML (+135)
The Pirates can’t lose every game, right? Right?! Pittsburgh comes into Thursday night in possession of a nine-game losing streak. The team has also won just once in their last 11 contests. It’s not great. So, why would I ever consider backing them? It’s really not that hard of a concept to follow.
First and foremost, the Pirates have their ace on the mound tonight. Mitch Keller has had a couple rocky outings in recent weeks, yet for the season as a whole, the RHP owns sterling marks in xERA (3.44), FIP (3.38) and strikeout rate (28.3%). The 27-year-old is a former top prospect who — thanks primarily to a new-found cut fastball — has truly turned a corner in 2023. It’s more likely than not he’ll be an All-Star within the next month.
Keller is right-handed, as well. That’s a crucial element to consider, as the Marlins have been far more effective at scoring runs off of left-handed pitching. To wit, Miami owns a 113 wRC+ versus southpaws and just a 93 wRC+ against RHPs. Meanwhile, the Pirates have also been better when opposed by a southpaw, as evidenced by a 107 wRC+ within the split, compared to an 89 wRC+ versus righties. Braxton Garrett, the Marlins’ probable starter on Thursday, is an LHP.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
