Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Astros -155
Justin Verlander may have finished Tuesday’s game with four runs to his name, but the right-hander still put up a formidable seven-inning performance against his old team. But, Framber Valdez was much more than formidable. Either way, both pitchers allowed their bullpen a day of rest, with both teams only seeing a reliever log one inning. That may help the under hit in this one, but that’s not where we’re focusing here.
On the note of the bullpen, Houston has the advantage. Neither bullpen in this game has posted a good FIP this month, but Astros relievers have also had to battle through a .353 BABIP. Considering Houston’s bullpen still has a lower June FIP (4.37) than Mets relievers (4.67) despite New York’s 59-point advantage in BABIP, Astros relievers look even better than the New York’s on paper.
As for the offenses, these two lineups have put up similar numbers against right-handed pitching this month. With that being the case, the edge goes to the Astros with Cristian Javier on the mound against Tylor Megill. Houston has lost Javier’s last two starts. One of those outings was a four-run performance, but he logged six innings of shutout baseball in his most recent showing — which is more in line with what he’s done this season.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Rangers -110
Martin Perez has been hot and cold his last four starts, mixing in a pair of outings where he gave up fewer than three runs over six-plus innings with two absolute clunkers. If the pattern were to continue, he’d be due for another rough go on Wednesday. The Rangers have proven they can survive that type of outing from Perez, but he shouldn’t experience another one of those in this contest.
The White Sox are one of 10 lineups with an ISO under .130 against left-handed pitching this month. They also have a 31.3% strikeout rate against lefties in June and have, oddly enough, gotten somewhat lucky within this split, posting a .310 BABIP. Their ISO and strikeout rate look even worse when just focusing on their at-bats against lefties in Chicago this month, and their BABIP has been even higher across those games.
Texas, on the other hand, is just shy of a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this month. In that same span, the Rangers have just a 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Michael Kopech has done better work at home than on the road, but his 3.83 home ERA and 5.50 home FIP help illustrate why the White Sox are just 4-4 in his home starts this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
