We’re nearing the dog days of summer, which means the sports calendar looks a bit bare. Fortunately, there’s plenty of baseball action to keep us satiated. All 30 teams will be in action on Tuesday, including an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+110)
These two teams are heading in opposing directions, with the Pirates losing eight of their past 10 contests and the Cubs winning eight of 10. The Pirates got off to a fantastic start this season, but they have dipped all the way back to third place in the weak NL Central. If the Cubs can beat them on Tuesday, they’ll move up to third in the standings, leaving the Pirates ahead of only the struggling Cardinals.
Johan Oviedo will start for Pittsburgh on Tuesday, and he has the stuff to succeed in the MLB. He pitched to a 3.21 ERA and a 3.74 FIP across 56 innings in 2022, splitting time being the bullpen and rotation. His numbers have dipped slightly as a starter in 2023, but his 3.81 FIP is still quality.
He should find success against a subpar Cubs lineup. They rank just 19th in wRC+ against right-handers this season, and they’ve dipped to 21st in that split over the past 14 days. Oviedo should also benefit from this start being in Pittsburgh, where his numbers are significantly better than they are on the road.
The Cubs will have their ace on the mound in Marcus Stroman, and he’s gotten off to a stellar start this season. That said, his advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive as his 2.45 ERA. He’s benefitted from an unsustainable .235 BABIP, so some regression is looming for Stroman moving forward.
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals:
The Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+125)
The Cardinals have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, posting a record of just 30-43 through their first 73 games. That said, things aren’t nearly as bad as they look on paper. They have a run differential of only -13, which gives them an expected record of much closer to .500. They’ve also won three straight contests, so it’s possible that they can turn things around over the second half of the year.
However, I don’t love their chances on Tuesday. They’re facing MacKenzie Gore, who has taken a significant step forward in his first full season with the Nationals. He’s striking out nearly 10.5 batters per nine innings, and he’s posted a 3.74 ERA. Some of his advanced metrics aren’t quite as pretty, but he’s also been a bit unlucky from a home run perspective. 16.2% of his fly balls have left the yard, which is well above his mark of 9.2% from last year. As a result, his 3.68 xFIP is even lower than his 3.74 ERA.
The Cardinals will turn to Jordan Montgomery, who is a solid but unspectacular left-hander. He’s posted a 3.91 ERA this season, but the Nationals have been significantly better against Southpaws than they have against traditional pitchers this season. They’ve actually been better than the Cardinals in that split, who have historically been an excellent offense against left-handed pitchers.
Montgomery may be the “safer” pitcher in this matchup, but I’ll take my chances with the upside of Gore.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels:
The Pick: Angels Moneyline (+115)
The battle for LA has a slightly different feel this season. The Dodgers aren’t quite as dominant as they’ve been in years past, while the Angels are finally living up to expectations. They’re sitting at 41-33, good for second place in a very competitive AL West, while the Dodgers are just 39-33 and in third place in the NL West.
The Dodgers will send ole’ reliable to the mound on Tuesday in Clayton Kershaw. However, Kershaw is now 35 years old, and he’s started to show just the tiniest bit of decline. His 2.95 ERA is still excellent, but his 3.63 FIP is more than a run higher than it was last year.
The Angels will turn to Reid Detmers, who is a talented young left-hander who is just entering his prime. His traditional numbers don’t jump off the page this season, but he’s been significantly unlucky from a batted-ball perspective. He has a .362 batting average on balls in play, which is significantly higher than his mark from last year. Fortunately, batters don’t make a ton of contact against Detmers, who is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. Add it all up, and Detmers’ 3.49 FIP is actually better than Kershaw’s.
Both of these offenses are pretty comparable against left-handed pitchers, but I’ll roll with the upstart Angels.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.