Monday’s matchup between the New York Mets and Houston Astros features two would-be powers that find themselves floundering as we near July. The Mets (33-38) currently sit 12.5 games back of the NL East lead, and haven’t won a series since they swept the Phillies at the end of May. The Astros (39-33), meanwhile, are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds, and currently sit 5.5 games back of the AL West lead. New York will look to Max Scherzer (5-2, 4.45 ERA) to turn things around, while Houston will send budding ace Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.35 ERA) to the mound. First pitch of tonight’s series opener from Minute Maid Park is set for 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Astros are -120 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Mets are +100 underdogs. The total is set at 7.5.
Mets-Astros picks: Monday, June 19
Injury report
Mets
Out: RP Edwin Uceta (recovery from left knee surgery), SP Elieser Hernandez (right shoulder strain), SP Jose Quintana (recovery from rib surgery), RP Sam Coonrod (right lat strain)
Astros
Out: SP Jose Urquidy (right shoulder inflammation), OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery), DH Yordan Alvarez (oblique strain)
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer vs. Hunter Brown
Scherzer’s had a bit of an up-and-down month. From May 21 to June 1, he looked every bit the ace he’s been for years now, as the righty went at least six innings in all three of his starts in that span while allowing just two total earned runs. That said, Scherzer has looked lost his last two times out, as he allowed five earned runs against the Braves on June 7 and allowed six runs in just 3.1 innings against the Yankees his last time out. Scherzer has completed six innings in just four of his 11 starts this season, and has struggled to get batters out with his fastball (.278 batting average against) and his slider (.319).
The last time out, Brown dazzled with seven scoreless innings against the Nationals to pick up his sixth win of the season. Now, he’ll get to go against the Mets with an extra day of rest, as the Astros went back to a six-man rotation in part to help reduce Brown’s workload. (He’s pitched 75.1 innings across 13 starts this season after combining for 130 inning between Triple-A and the Majors last season.) The rookie currently ranks in the 75th percentile in expected slugging and the 75th percentile in strikeout rate.
Over/Under pick
While Brown and Scherzer are both pitchers who have had success in their career, I’m going to back the over here. The Astros have cleared this over in four of their last six games, while the Mets have cleared this in three of their last five games.
Pick: Over 7.5
Moneyline pick
With Scherzer searching on the mound, I’m backing the Astros. Their lineup has kept producing even with Alvarez’s injury, and I think that trend will continue today.
Pick: Astros