It is not often the that a team leading their division has a worse record than a team in last place in a different division but that’s the case with Monday’s game in Minnesota with the Twins hosting the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins (-125, 8)
Working against the Red Sox is a lot of factors, but the scheduling itself is not favorable with the team having to play their biggest rivals in the New York Yankees for a doubleheader with game two being on Sunday Night Baseball, leading to the Red Sox not arriving to Minnesota until after midnight.
The Red Sox in general have struggled with their offense on the road, ranking just 25th among the 30 MLB teams in road batting average at .228 with their 4.1 runs per game away from home ranking 24th while their .291 home batting average entering Sunday led the league with their 5.9 runs per game being second in the league.
It will be up to Twins starter Pablo Lopez, who’s advanced numbers show signs of future success, posting a 4.27 ERA but a 3.56 fielding independent to go with it while getting 10.8 strikeouts to 2.5 walks per nine innings.
The Twins back up Lopez with a bullpen that ranks fifth in the league in ERA while the Red Sox are 13th in this category.
Boston turns to James Paxton for Monday’s start, who also has some large home and road splits, posting a 1.69 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 4.50 road ERA with 1.7 home runs per game allowed away from home.
Though the Twins have struggled on offense this season, they enter Monday having scored at least four runs in six of their last eight games and are have a .241 home batting average compared to a .219 average on the road.
The Twins are 3-1 in Lopez’s last four starts and will make it 4-1 in his last five starts against a Red Sox offense that is struggling in general on the road to hit, and now is in a tough logistical spot.
The Play: Twins -125
