The 2023 NBA Draft will take place Thursday with the San Antonio Spurs holding the No. 1 overall pick. They are expected to take Victor Wembanyama, but the draft is truly going to be unpredictable after that selection. There are three consensus top prospects according to most intel on the draft in Wembanyama, Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson. After those three players, it truly is anyone’s guess who goes at No. 4. One player who was in consideration for the No. 4 spot was Houston forward Jarace Walker. With the Rockets holding the fourth pick, it seemed logical for them to take the hometown player to help their rebuild.
Walker doesn’t jump off the page offensively but he’s a burly forward who can wreak havoc on the defensive end. The Rockets and Pistons were both considered landing spots for Walker throughout much of the draft process but now there seems to be movement away from the forward. In the DraftKings Network live mock draft, Walker eventually went at No. 10 to the Mavericks. How does a player who was deemed a lock to go at either No. 4 or No. 5 fall five spots?
The first explanation could be bad intelligence. The Magic were seemingly set to take Jabari Smith at No. 1 last year, but ultimately took Paolo Banchero. That move became known about 10 minutes for the draft officially started. Walker isn’t in the same realm as a prospect, but he’s likely considered the most safe option among the players outside of the top three. Unfortunately, that’s not exactly a positive for teams in the lottery.
This brings us to the second reason, which is upside. Walker isn’t old by any means, but his offensive potential feels limited based on his poor shooting numbers and propensity to operate primarily in the paint area. Guys like Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Taylor Hendricks possess a bit more offensive versatility, and the potential of the three-point shot is there. Teams might opt to go for the upside instead of taking the “safe” pick in Walker.
The third reason is the way the board lines up at the moment. If the Rockets and Pistons both pass on Walker, the next logical spot for him to land would be Indiana. If the Pacers pass on him at No. 7, the next logical spot would be Dallas at No. 10. It only takes one or two selections to go the other way and Walker would be in the back half of the lottery. Hendricks is a player who slots in at a similar position on the floor but could have more shooting upside. If the Pistons or Pacers go for him over Walker, that could mean more of a wait for the Houston forward.