8 games are on the schedule for Monday, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. We’re going to go over a couple of bets I like that you can place on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into it.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Game total over 9 runs -115
We have a really gross pitching matchup for tonight, with Jordan Lyles taking on Reese Olson. Lyles has been one of the worst pitchers in the majors statistically. Amongst players with at least 50 innings thrown, his 6.89 ERA is the third-worst in the league while his 5.77 FIP is fifth. Just simply looking at his game log shows how bad he’s really been. He’s allowed at LEAST four runs in 11 of the 14 starts he’s made. This month alone, Lyles has thrown 18 innings and has given up 11 runs on 13 hits and two home runs. If if this Tigers offense is nothing special (which it isn’t) everyone has been hitting Lyles hard when he takes the mound.
For the Tigers, they’ll be starting Olson for the third time in his major league career. In the small sample we’ve seen as a starter, Olson has allowed eight runs on seven hits. These poor numbers are aligned with how he was throwing in Triple-A before coming up to the majors. Through 36.2 innings, Olson had a 6.38 ERA with a 4.74 FIP and a 5.4 BB/9. The Royals, like the Tigers, are nothing special offensively but when you put these type of pitchers on the mound, runs should be put on the board.
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
The Pick: James Paxton to record a win +185
James Paxton will look to earn his third win in a Red Sox uniform tonight against the Twins. Making his seventh start of the season, Paxton has been as good as advertised, posting a 3.09 ERA with a 3.34 xERA and a 3.09 FIP. He faces one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties, as the Twins have a just a .292 wOBA and a 85 wRC+. They also strikeout a ton with a 28.2% K%, which is the second-highest against lefties. Paxton has consistently put himself in a position to earn the win, as he’s thrown at least 5 innings and allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts. I think with how poorly the Twins are against lefties, Paxton should be able to handle this lineup, as he has in the majority of his starts. I like taking the big plus money as a way to play the Red Sox to win, rather than the +115 on the moneyline.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Game Total under 4.5 through first five innings -125
Good pitching matchup tonight with Corbin Burnes against Merrill Kelly. Burnes has really turned his season around after a very tough start in April. During the month of June, Burnes owns a 2.70 ERA and a .214 wOBA, allowing just six runs on 11 hits through 20 innings. His strikeout numbers are also getting back on track, as he went from just a 19.7% K% in April to a 31.6% in June. His wOBA actually goes down the deeper he goes into the game, going from a .305 wOBA the first time through the order to a .264 and then a .242. The D-Backs offense has been great but I do like Burnes in this spot at home.
Kelly continues to be the 1B in this Arizona rotation. He could hit some regression at some point, as his ERA and xERA are about a run apart at 3.04 and 4.05 respectively. Still, he’s tamed some good offenses recently. He held the Braves to only two runs on five hits and eight strikeouts in 7 innings. Let me tell you, the Brewers are the complete opposite of what the Braves have offensively. In June, the Brewers have just an 84 wRC+ and a 27% K%. 4.5 runs feels a bit inflated with these two starters taking the mound tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
