Minor League Prospect Report, Week 13: Is Gavin Williams’ debut almost upon us?

This season has been defined by rookies making a splash, and this past week was no exception: Bo Naylor finally got the call for the Cleveland Guardians, while Emmet Sheehan shoved for the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first MLB start and Luis Matos is busy making history already for the San Francisco Giants. And the prospect train shows no sign of slowing down: on Monday night, 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis will make his long-awaited debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Of course, you wouldn’t have been shocked by any of this if you’d been keeping up with our weekly prospect reports, in which every single one of those guys was highlighted before reaching the Majors. (All those graduations have opened up a few new spots on our list of prospects to stash for fantasy baseball, too.) Want to know who’s next? Here’s everything that’s happened on the farm last week.

Prospect report for week of Monday, June 19

Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians

We’ve been banging the Williams drum for a while, ever since the righty started carving up the high Minors this year with a fastball that frequently cracked triple-digits. The 23rd overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft has come back to Earth a little bit at Triple-A of late, but given his ridiculous start, that was to be expected — and he’s still got the same electric stuff that’s had scouts salivating all year:

Williams has still pitched to a 2.93 ERA with 61 strikeouts over 46 innings in Columbus, and he may not have to wait very much longer before getting the call to the Show. With Triston McKenzie on the injured list again — possibly for quite a while — with elbow discomfort, the Guardians once again find themselves with a hole in their rotation. Touki Toussaint got the first crack at filling that spot this weekend, but the former top prospect walked five over just 2.2 innings of work. Cleveland still has every chance to make a run in the weak AL Central, and if they want to capitalize on it, they should bring Williams up at some point this week.

Andrew Painter, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

Painter fell off just about everybody’s radar after being shut down this spring due to a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow, but it appears that the ink on his 2023 season isn’t dry yet after all. The righty threw two bullpen sessions last week, one at 20 pitches and the other at 25, the first time he threw off a mound since February. He’s still a way’s away from a return to competitive action — and Philly will obviously be as careful as possible with its prized pitching prospect — but Painter was the betting favorite to win the fifth starter job in camp, and if he comes back at some point in July, it’s not inconceivable that we could see him in the Majors before the year is out. He blitzed three levels of the Minors last year at just 19 years old, posting a 1.56 ERA with 155 strikeouts in just 103.2 innings, so it’s not like he has much left to prove.

Evan McKendry, SP, Rays

The last of our trio of starting pitching prospects to watch, McKendry has been on a tear at Triple-A of late, with a 2.01 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last eight starts. The former ninth-round pick has never cracked any top prospect lists, and he won’t light up any radar guns, but he has excellent command of his full arsenal — including a Bugs Bunny changeup.

Given the injuries that have beset the Rays rotation this year, from Jeffrey Springs to Drew Rasmussen to Josh Fleming, it feels like only a matter of time before McKendry gets his chance in the Majors. There’s not a ton of strikeout upside here, but Tampa has been churning out viable starters from profiles like this for years now.

Justin Dirden, OF, Houston Astros

Dirden won’t make anyone forget about the loss of Yordan Alvarez, but if Houston keeps floundering at the plate over the next few weeks, he could finally get his chance in the Majors. A victim of the pandemic-shortened 2020 MLB Draft, Dirden signed with the Astros as an undrafted free agent that summer after starring at Southeast Missouri State. All he’s done since then is hit, crushing Double-A to the tune of a .324/.411/.616 slash line last season. He’s kept that up this year at Triple-A, with an .816 OPS including eight homers and four steals in 55 games, and while it’s not the flashiest profile, he just knows how to get the barrel to the ball:

He could wind up as an everyday, 20/25-homer bat if he gets extended playing time.

Justyn Henry-Malloy, 3B, Detroit Tigers/Oscar Colas, OF, Chicago White Sox/Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

We’ll end this week by highlighting three mainstays who find themselves slipping down our prospects to stash rankings. Colas has struggled in Triple-A since being sent down, especially lately: Over the last 30 days, he’s hitting just .241/.333/.287 with a whopping zero homers, a major concern considering that he also doesn’t provide much in the way of speed. Rodriguez, meanwhile, was beaten to the Majors by fellow catcher/utility man Davis, and his OPS at Triple-A is now down to .706 after a strong start. Henry-Malloy has the best case of these three to get the call to the Majors, if only because of how weak the Tigers lineup has been, but after a blistering April he’s hitting .191/.339/.362 over the last 30 days with a 27% strikeout rate. They’ll all likely be promoted at some point this summer, but their stock is definitely trending down.

Top 25 prospects to stash for fantasy baseball