The San Diego Padres evened their three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday behind a dominant Blake Snell. Now both teams will looking to bag a series win in the rubber match on Sunday afternoon, with first pitch from Petco Park set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Yonny Chirinos (3-1, 2.35 ERA) will start for Tampa, while San Diego sends Joe Musgrove (4-2, 4.37) to the mound.
The Padres enter as -140 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rays at +120. The run total is set at 9.
Rays-Padres picks: Sunday, June 18
Injury report
Rays
Out: RP Josh Fleming (elbow), 2B Brandon Lowe (back), RP Calvin Faucher (elbow)
Padres
Out: RP Tom Cosgrove (hamstring), SP Seth Lugo (calf), RP Robert Suarez (elbow), RP Drew Pomeranz (elbow), 3B Eguy Rosario (ankle), C Luis Campusano (thumb)
Starting pitchers
Yonny Chirinos vs. Joe Musgrove
Thrust into Tampa’s rotation due to injuries to Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs, Chirinos has acquitted himself well. He’ll be making his third start of the season, having allowed a total of four runs across 11 innings in the previous two. His most recent appearance came in a bulk role against the Oakland Athletics this week in which he allowed just two hits over 3.2 shutout innings. The righty doesn’t strike very many batters out — his K rate is in the 2nd percentile — but he’s a ground-ball merchant, throwing his sinker nearly 50% of the time to try and get quick, easy outs.
Musgrove got off to a slow start this year amid injuries to both his toe and his shoulder, but the righty has recently started to look more like his ace self. He’s posted a 1.93 ERA over his last four starts, including a win over the Cleveland Guardians earlier this week in which he gave up three runs over six innings of work. His curveball remains one of the best in the game, while his slider — which he threw more than any other offering last year — has yet to really join the party. Musgrove is trending in the right direction, though, and his track record suggests his among baseball’s best starters.
Over/Under pick
The totals of the first two games were 8 and 2, and I’m backing the under again on Sunday. Musgrove is getting better and better with each start, while the Rays offense has been surprisingly average of late — Tampa is averaging less than four runs per game over their last six. Chirinos has been sneaky effective on the mound this year, and he should at least keep the Rays in it against a Padres offense that’s much better against lefties than righties.
Pick: Under 9
Moneyline pick
Chirinos has done yeoman’s work, but I’m still backing Musgrove’s ace potential in this spot. The righty is getting his feet under him, and if he has both his curve and his slider working he’s very, very tough to hit. He and San Diego’s bullpen should keep the Rays offense in check enough for Juan Soto and Co. to manufacture a win.
Pick: Padres
