This is going to be the last Friday betting article I write for a couple weeks, because I’m a busy man and I have an array of industry titans that wish to wine and dine me. I also have a wedding and a graduation the next two weekends. But that doesn’t mean the first thing I said wasn’t true.
We’re sitting at 33-25 (+10.3u) for the season on article plays. Let’s find some winners on this evening’s slate.
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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Under 9.5 (+100)
Was I the only one watching this same series last week? Granted, Yankee Stadium is a better pitcher’s park than Fenway, but there were 14 total runs scored by these two teams across three games — and one of those was a 10th inning ghost runner. In the month of June, New York has maybe been MLB’s worst lineup. The Yankees have been the lone team in baseball batting below the Mendoza line at a putrid .192, while their 73 wRC+ within the same span is an AL-worst mark. You’re starting to see why Aaron Judge makes $360 million, right?
Is this the most daunting pitching matchup you’ll ever see? No. Specifically, Tanner Houck has struggled when toeing the rubber in Boston in 2023. However, for the season as a whole, Houck’s 3.86 xERA and 4.02 SIERA are perfectly acceptable, even slightly above-average. On the other side, Domingo German has been downright nasty as of late. Sticky fingers or not, the RHP has managed to maintain a sterling 2.20 ERA over his past seven outings. With two rested bullpens following an off-day, Houck and German should be more than enough to keep this total low in the early innings.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The sky is blue. Water is wet. Woo strikes dudes out. This is the way the world works. Blessed with the ability to touch the upper 90s with his fastball, Woo has been striking out opponents at every level of baseball he’s ever played. The 23-year-old sported a 33.6% strikeout rate across three levels in 2022, he posted a 34.3% strikeout rate in his nine starts at Double-A earlier this season and, in only 6.2 innings in the majors, Woo has already racked up 11 punch outs. He’s also surrendered six earned runs, but that’s not important right now.
Woo will likely need to flirt with five innings of work to go over this prop — he struck out seven in 4.2 frames on Saturday — but he couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The White Sox have been highly susceptible to swing-and-miss stuff in recent weeks, owning 26.7% strikeout rate since the beginning of June. That’s the third-highest mark in the league within that span. Chicago also owns an MLB-high 38.4% chase rate dating back to June 1. To be blunt, this is a lineup that just doesn’t make a lot of contact.
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres
Rays ML (-110)
Let’s just keep this one simple. When the Rays are this close to even-money, you back them. When the Rays are this close to even-money and Shane McClanahan is the probable pitcher, you start wondering if you’re on an internet prank show.
Tampa is 12-2 when their ace is on the mound in 2023. The Rays are also 38-15 in their last 53 games against a team below .500 and, for good measure, 5-2 in their last seven contests on the road. In general, it’s a decent idea to bet any AL East team in a non-divisional matchup, as the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles have combined for a stunning .628 winning percentage (147-87) when opposed by anyone from the league’s other five divisions.
It’s not like Yu Darvish has been pitching all that well lately, either. The veteran enters play on Friday in possession of a 6.15 ERA in his past five outings. That stretch does include a game at Coors Field, so the numbers are a little artificially inflated; however, Darvish getting beat-up by the lowly Royals has no excuse. He’s not at his best at the moment.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
