After a tough loss in extra innings last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-27) will look to salvage a split of their four-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (34-34) on Thursday afternoon. First pitch of the series finale is set for 3:40 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. Philly will send ace Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.60 ERA) to the hill amid a bumpy 2023 season so far, while Arizona counters with righty Ryne Nelson (3-3, 4.95).
The Phillies are -125 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Diamondbacks +105 underdogs with the over/under set at nine.
Phillies-Diamondbacks picks: Thursday, June 15th
Injury report
Phillies
Out: OF Cristian Pache (knee), 1B Darick Hall (thumb), 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee), C Rafael Marchan (wrist), SP Noah Song (back)
Diamondbacks
Day to day: 2B Ketel Marte (back)
Out: RP Cole Sulser (shoulder), RP Mark Melancon (shoulder), SP Corbin Martin (shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola vs. Ryne Nelson
Nola got off to a strong start to the season through the first month, but it’s been a struggle for the All-Star recently. He’s allowed 18 runs (15 earned) over his last four starts heading into this matchup. In his most recent outing, Nola allowed six runs over 6.1 innings in a 9-0 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Nelson will make his 14th start of the year and is coming off his best appearance of the season. Nelson threw 5.2 scoreless innings on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts in a victory over the Detroit Tigers.
Over/Under pick
Both offenses rank inside the top 10 in slugging percentage, and Phillies games had reached at least nine runs in five straight until Wednesday night. The Diamondbacks also hit that total in four of their last five prior to yesterday’s matchup. Neither starter has been all that effective, and the lineups should be set up for success here.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
Nola has been a bit difficult to trust over his last few starts, especially after his worst outing of the season. Nelson’s season-long numbers look even worse, but he’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his last five starts. Let’s side with him on Thursday afternoon at plus odds.
Pick: Diamondbacks