Who says writers aren’t superstitious? I mean, we all know athletes are — gamblers, too — but this morning I took a page from those playbooks. June hasn’t been that kind to us, as we come into Thursday just 4-6 on article plays this month. We’re still at 32-24 for the season as a whole, yet I don’t want to take any chances. Let’s stem this tide. So, long story short, I got a haircut. Change the vibes up, you know? A fresh start.
Let’s see how it works on tonight’s betting slate.
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Under 9.5 (-115)
There’s a reasonable chance this blows up in my face. Not only do the Braves lead all teams with a .379 wOBA against left-handed pitchers like Kyle Freeland, but Atlanta’s 131 wRC+ in June is the month’s highest mark. This is a lineup built in a laboratory to destroy middling southpaws, even if said lefty isn’t pitching at Coors Field tonight.
However, on the other side of this matchup we find the Rockies. A team currently without its top three bats due to injuries to C.J. Cron, Kris Bryant and Charlie Blackmon. Colorado is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum to the Braves when it comes to recent offensive success, sitting dead-last in wRC+ the past two weeks (69). For the season as a whole, the Rockies also sport NL-worst marks in both ISO (.115) and wOBA (.286) on the road, which is probably why the under is 38-18-1 in the team’s last 57 games away from the altitude. AJ Smith-Shawver has yet to allow a run in the brief MLB career. There’s no reason that has to change on Thursday.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Dylan Cease Over 2.5 Walks (+145)
This is a lot of walks. It’s so many walks that even Cease, who possesses a monstrous 11.3% walk rate across his past 13 starts, has only gone over this prop five times in 2023. Still, this kind of feels like the perfect storm in terms of matchup and the juice is definitely enticing.
The Dodgers are a team that likes to take its walks. Los Angeles sits second in baseball with a 10.8% walk rate, while it also owns a league-low 27.6% chase rate. Unsurprisingly, this is what happens when you build an entire roster out of patient, veteran bats. Mookie Betts has the lowest individual chase rate among all qualified hitters (19.1%). Betts, Max Muncy and Miguel Vargas all rank inside the top 20 in walk rate. This isn’t that difficult to explain. Cease has registered the highest career walk rate among all active starters with at least 500 innings to their name (10.6%). If there was ever a spot where his inability to throw strikes would get him in trouble, it’s at Dodger Stadium.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
