The Miami Heat fell short of their ultimate goal this season, losing in the NBA Finals in five games at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. However, their season cannot be defined as anything other than a tremendous success heading into a summer filled with big decisions.
The Heat became the second No. 8 seed in NBA history to make the Finals, and the first team to make the Finals from the play-in tournament. It was an impressive run by every metric, but it also did raise some questions about whether the Heat would be able to keep this going.
The positives
There are three major factors going for the Heat heading into next season. The first is Jimmy Butler, who showed he could turn things on at seemingly any moment and become the league’s best player. Butler averaged 26.9 points, 5.9 assists and 6.5 rebounds per game in 22 playoff contests. His two-way play was pivotal in keeping Miami in games, especially on the road. Every team needs a leader to step up, and Butler did so in a big way.
The next factor is Bam Adebayo. Adebayo had a relatively quiet postseason, averaging 16.8 points and 9.2 rebounds per game through the conference finals. In the Finals, the big man took things to the next level with 21.8 points and 12.4 rebounds per game while also defending Nikola Jokic. The Jokic experience wasn’t great for Adebayo, but he held his own better than most people thought. If he can keep improving and builds on the Finals performance, the Heat might have another star on their hands.
The last factor is the inspired play of the role players. Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin all rose to the occasion in a big way. Vincent shot 37.5% from deep before an ankle injury hobbled him late in the conference finals, while Strus connected on 35.9% of his triples. Martin was one vote away from being the conference finals MVP, averaging 19.3 points per game on 60/48.9/87.5 splits in the seven games.
The concerns
Vincent and Strus are both free agents, with the former likely having a decent market. The Heat won’t be able to just snag him for a minimum contract without any resistance. The other issue is that eventually, these role players who play above their heads drop off. Vincent, Strus and Martin all looked like shells of themselves in the Finals. In short, the Heat can’t keep relying on a random player to have a big series here and there.
Butler broke down by the end of the Finals, or was at least heavily fatigued to the point where he couldn’t carry the team. He had a late 13-point burst in Game 5 of the Finals, but was incredibly passive and inefficient for the first 43 minutes of the game. His ankle issues may have flared up, but that’s part of the concern. Butler is 33 and is entering the phase where players start to have injuries by simply playing too much. Just like the role players having big series, it’s hard for the Heat to bank on Butler making this type of run every postseason without some help.
There are two contracts the Heat will look at this summer. Kyle Lowry is going to make a little over $29 million next season and is an expiring deal. Duncan Robinson is set to make a little over $18 million and has two more seasons left on his contract after next year. That’s close to $50 million in salaries the Heat can move, which will likely require some draft capital being attached as well.
The Herro factor and “Heat Culture”
Miami will wonder what impact Tyler Herro could’ve had in the playoffs and Finals. The guard averaged 20.1 points per game during the regular season, and provided a legitimate offensive threat to complement Butler. With him out, the Heat didn’t have a second player who could create his own shot. Herro’s extension kicks in next season, and he’s going to have to prove he’s worth that price point. Him and Adebayo improving will be important as Butler enters a stage of his career where he could decline.
The “Heat Culture” monicker is a double-edged sword for this team. On the one hand, the Heat believe they can continuously develop role players out of thin air to complement their core and form a championship-caliber team. On the other, they know there are no rewards for finishing in second place. That means ruthless moves, tough decisions and potentially hurt feelings in the pursuit of a championship.
The paths
The first path for Miami is to run this operation back for another season. Lowry’s contract will expire, and Robinson’s deal will be more palatable for the team to move on from if he doesn’t improve. Running things back would basically mean banking on improvement from within.
The second path involves making a big move. The Heat have long been rumored as a destination for Bradley Beal, while Damian Lillard has expressed admiration for what the team has built. Kyrie Irving and Fred VanVleet are both unrestricted free agents. Acquiring any of those players means getting rid of Lowry, who the Heat pushed to trade for only a few seasons ago. The guard is also friends with Butler, and breaking up that pairing could rip through the “Heat Culture” fabric. However, Lowry has clearly lost a step or two and that’s important when pursuing the ultimate goal. Robinson would also likely be moved in an effort to retain Vincent and Strus if the Heat make that big addition.