Both the New York Yankees and New York Mets are teetering on the edge of crisis mode right now, which should make for an awfully combustible Subway Series over the next couple of days. First pitch for game on Tuesday night is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens. Righty Luis Severino (0-1, 5.75 ERA) will look to get back on track for the Yankees, while the Mets turn to ace Max Scherzer (5-2, 3.71).
The Mets enter as -165 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Yankees the +140 underdogs. The run total is set at 7.5.
Yankees-Mets picks: Tuesday, June 13
Injury report
Yankees
Out: OF Aaron Judge (toe), OF Harrison Bader (hamstring), RP Ian Hamilton (groin), OF Greg Allen (hip), SP Carlos Rodon (back)
Mets
Out: 1B Pete Alonso (wrist), RP Edwin Uceta (knee), SP Jose Quintana (ribs)
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino vs. Max Scherzer
It seemed like all systems go for Severino, who finally returned from a shoulder injury in late May and looked great over his first two starts. But then the calendar flipped to June, and the wheels have come off: The righty has allowed 11 runs on 15 hits (including a whopping six homers) across two outings this month, with reduced fastball velocity that has everyone in New York wondering whether something else has gone wrong with the oft-injured starter. (For the record, both player and team insist that he feels fine.) When he’s right, Severino is one of the best starters in the game, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him moving forward.
Just when it seemed like Scherzer was back to his old self, the 38-year-old hit another road block, getting rocked for five runs on 11 hits in a loss to the Atlanta Braves last week. Still, the righty struck out 10 despite that ugly stat line, and Atlanta’s .247 expected batting average suggests there was some batted ball luck at play. Scherzer had been on a roll up to that point, allowing just three runs combined over his previous four starts, and he appears to be fully over the shoulder issue that plagued him earlier this year.
Over/Under pick
You can understand why this number is as low as it is; the Yankees have scored a grand total of 17 runs in their six games since Aaron Judge landed on the IL, while the Mets have been maddeningly inconsistent at the plate all year. But while Scherzer figures to make things very tough on this diminished Yankees lineup, I’m still taking the over, largely because there’s just no way to trust the current version of Severino. Maybe he comes out throwing 99 again and looking like his old self, but until that happens, even this Mets offense seems likely to have success and carry us most of the way to this number.
Pick: Over 7.5
Moneyline pick
I probably tipped my hand a bit in the above section, but something’s wrong with Severino right now, and his current form gives the Mets a big advantage on the mound tonight. Alonso’s absence hurts, but Francisco Lindor and Co. still pack more punch than a ragtag Yankees lineup featuring the likes of Willie Calhoun, Billy McKinney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers.
Pick: Mets
