We were so, so close to a full 15-game slate this evening, something it feels like we haven’t had all season. But alas, thanks to a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch in Detroit, we’ll have to settle for just 14 games. Actually, with heavy rain expected in Chicago, let’s call it 13.5 games to be safe.
Let’s go position-by-position and find some studs and values on the diamond.
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PITCHER
Stud
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, $9,900 – There have been a couple different points this season where Burnes has looked truly like himself. The most recent? How about eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Orioles last week? For as good as the zeroes must’ve felt for the RHP, it’s the strikeouts that have me excited. Burnes’ strikeout rate is curiously down at 23.7% in 2023 as a whole, yet it’s sitting at a far more enticing 30.4% in his last three outings. With the Twins owning the league’s highest strikeout rate in June (28.7%), I’d expect the whiffs to keep coming on Tuesday.
Value
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians, $7,800 – So, were just going to keep pricing Musgrove under $8K, huh? I’m not complaining. Though the veteran’s 4.35 ERA appears high, Musgrove is actually in possession of a career-best 3.12 xERA over his first eight starts of 2023. He’s struck out 42 opponents in 41.1 innings of work and, maybe most importantly, he’s surrendered just two earned runs in his past three outings. What more does he have to do to prove he’s fully back from injury? Anyway, it’s a nice matchup, too. The Guardians have looked better as of late, but the team’s .295 wOBA for the season ranks 28th in baseball.
INFIELD
Stud
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics, $5,900 – I have no idea how the Athletics have managed to win six straight, but if they want to make it seven on Tuesday, they’ll need to score a lot of runs, because Tampa is in a prime matchup. Hogan Harris ($5,200) and his 6.46 ERA will be making his second-career start for Oakland, against a lineup that sports an eye-popping 152 wRC+ versus LHPs. Franco is one of the biggest reasons for the Rays’ dominance within the split, as the switch-hitter is slashing .367/.446/.571 with a 192 wRC+ from the right-side in 2023.
Stud
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, $4,700 – Let’s stay in the world of generational infield talents. It hasn’t taken De La Cruz long to acclimatize himself at the MLB level, as the 21-year-old owns a 146 wRC+ and four steals in his first seven games — that includes a 1.184 OPS from the left-side. In a single word, he’s been amazing. That has not been the case for Jordan Lyles ($5,500), who is currently rocking a 6.84 ERA and is allowing opposing LHBs to smack 2.48 home runs per nine. Woof.
Value
Mauricio Dubon, Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals, $3,500 – Even with Jose Altuve ($4,600) off the IL, Dubon has continued to primarily bat leadoff for the Astros. Considering tonight’s matchup is against the left-handed Patrick Corbin ($6,400), I’d anticipate Dubon atop Houston’s lineup card once again. In 42 plate appearances within the split, Dubon owns a .423 wOBA and a 176 wRC+. It’s also worth noting Corbin has registered an underwhelming 6.22 xERA so far this season. He remains bad.
Value
Brandon Belt, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, $2,300 – Belt left Saturday’s game with hamstring tightness, but with a couple days off, he should be back in the Jays’ lineup tonight. If that’s the case, this price is hilariously cheap. Since May 1, Belt is slashing .323/.452/.527 with a 177 wRC+. Among players with at least 100 plate appearances in that same span, that’s the fifth-best wRC+ in the whole league. It’s not like Dean Kremer ($7,500) is all that imposing, either. The RHP owns a 6.22 xERA and lefties are hitting .321 off him across 13 starts.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics, $5,700 – Arozarena has been incredible in pretty much every split imaginable in 2023, yet it’s undeniable that he’s been at his absolute best when facing a southpaw. In 50 plate appearances versus lefties, Arozarena is hitting .302 with a .349 ISO and a 194 wRC+. Harris will need to tread carefully with the former Rookie of the Year winner.
Stud
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,300 – I don’t believe in Santa. I don’t believe in the Tooth Fairy. I don’t believe in ghosts. However, I do believe in June Schwarber. For his career, Schwarber sports an insane .350 ISO in the month, thanks to averaging a home run every 9.8 at-bats. This year, since June 1, the hulking LHBs has already collected four long balls, which translates to a healthy 145 wRC+. It might also interest you to know that Schwarber’s hit four home runs off of Zach Davies ($6,200) in their past meetings.
Value
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, $3,500 – As you would expect, the Jays are one of a handful of teams with an implied total of at least five runs on Tuesday and, as mentioned above, Kremer has struggled with left-handed bats all season. That opens the door for Varsho to be viable on this slate. The converted catcher has been hot the past few weeks, too, with a .219 ISO and a 120 wRC+ dating back to May 22.
Value
David Peralta, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox, $2,700 – I put Peralta’s name in this section, but it could easily be James Outman ($3,700) or even Jason Heyward ($2,500). Just pick a left-handed Dodgers outfielder and put him into a couple lineups. Lance Lynn ($7,600) has been completely unable to retire LHBs in 2023. In fact, the veteran is allowing left-handed opponents to slash .362/.413/.702. Lynn’s surrendering 3.48 home runs per nine within the split. Damn.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
