Update: Herro is officially back, and he’ll be coming off the bench for Miami in Game 5.
Update: Herro has been upgraded to questionable and is indeed expected to make his return to the court with the Heat facing elimination, but the lines haven’t moved much given the uncertainty surrounding his potential impact. The Nuggets are still big favorites, with the line now at Denver -8.5. The total has jumped up to 210.
Game 5 of the NBA Finals is set for Monday night with the Nuggets leading the series 3-1. The series returns back to Denver after the Nuggets took down the Miami Heat in both games in South Beach. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET and the game will air on ABC.
The only injury worth noting is Tyler Herron for the Heat. Herro broke his hand in the series against the Milwaukee Bucks and is still out. There was some thought he may be able to return at some point this series, but that seems unlikely.
The Nuggets are 9-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the point total sits at 209. The Nuggets are -380 on the moneyline, while the Heat are +310.
Heat vs. Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets -9
It has felt like the Nuggets have dominated this entire series. Since they lost one at home, they’ve won the last two games by double digits. Nikola Jokic has been unstoppable while Jamal Murray has turned it on in a strong way as well. I expect the Nuggets to be too much for the Heat once again.
Denver also has a chance to win the title on its home floor. That has to mean a lot for the Nuggets and I would expect them to do everything they can to finish this series tonight. The worst thing you can do is let a team hang around when you have a chance to wrap the series up. Look for the Nuggets to win by double digits and hoist the trophy on their court.
Over/Under: Under 209
This has been one of the lowest-scoring NBA Finals in a long time. Defense usually turns up in the Finals, but it has been a long time since we have seen nearly every game go under its total.
I expect Game 5 to stay under. I just don’t see what will change that hasn’t already. Throughout the playoffs, the Heat have been a relatively low scoring team, but have limited their opponents. I think the Heat finish in the high 90s and the Nuggets finish around 105-110 points to just cash the under.
