Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2023 U.S. Open Golf Picks and recapping the 2023 Canadian Open. Plus, at 21:31, Tim Anderson joins to give his cursed picks along with the players who have no chance of winning the year’s third Major championship… according to him.
US Open Picks, Course Preview, Cash Giveaway
2023 U.S. Open — Picks & Preview | Player Picks + Research | Stats/Tools
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2023 US Open — DraftKings Picks | Best Bets | Own Projections
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2023 U.S. Open: Field
156 Players | Top 60 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, June 15
Defending Champion: Matt Fitzpatrick
The toughest test in golf ventures to Hollywood for the first time, with the debut of Los Angeles Country Club as the host location for the national Open.
It’s not the first tournament LACC has ever hosted, however. The LA Open was first contested here in 1926. I tried to dig through that year’s history and find comp leaderboards, but there wasn’t enough steam to power my telegraph. STOP!
For our purposes, the closest thing we have to any players having experience at this location is the 2017 Walker Cup and 2013 Pac-12 Championship. Max Homa fired a course record 61 on the first day of that NCAA event in 2013, en route to a -9 over three rounds. Jon Rahm, Michael Kim, and Patrick Rodgers also competed that year.
The Walker Cup is set up like the Ryder Cup in that it’s all match play, so it can be difficult to decipher who played great simply based on record alone—but it’s a good starting point. Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa were a part of the winning U.S. squad that year with Morikawa going a perfect 4-0. Morikawa was last seen withdrawing from The Memorial Tournament after hitting a few shots on the range prior to the final round because of back spasms. He hasn’t been seen since. Back spasms are a far different story than genuine back problems. Spasms take a few days to go away and then everything is normal until another inciting incident. If that’s all it was, Morikawa should be fine entering play.
Since it’s a major, there are custom cut-line rules—can’t just be a normal event, now. And the U.S. Open is the most daunting from that perspective. Although The Masters only has the top 50 and ties qualifying for the weekend, it’s a limited field of golfers; the U.S. Open has the largest field of the year, maxed at 156 players, and only the top 60 and ties will qualify for rounds three and four. It’s not a given, but the U.S. Open usually sports one of the lowest 6/6 percentages for DraftKings lineups all year. Couple that with the expected lack of birdies and placement points will be far more valuable this week over the standard PGA TOUR tournament. Fortunately, there are 48 players $6,400 and under this week, and only four or five may be considered playable in your lineups, so that takes a bit of the edge off.
2023 U.S. Open: Key Stats
SG: Off The Tee
SG: Approach
Proximity 175+ Yards
Bogey Avoidance
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
2023 U.S. Open: Course
- Course: Los Angeles Country Club
- Yardage: 7,421
- Par: 70
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Stimpmeter: 13
2023 U.S. Open: Past Winners
- 2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
- 2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
- 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
- 2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
Get full US Open Tournament History at FantasyNational.com
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
- Event prior: 10th at RBC Canadian Open
- Prior U.S. Open: 55th
- +5 strokes putting in three of four events prior
- +5 strokes T2G in each of the four events prior
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
- Event prior: 8th at PGA
- Prior U.S. Open: 23rd
- SG:P had improved in consecutive tournaments leading in
- +5 strokes T2G in five of seven measured events prior
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
- Event prior: 22nd in TOUR Championship
- Prior U.S. Open: 35th
- Showcased putting upside in the two months prior (downside too, but +4.4 or more strokes putting in four of seven leading in (including two of his three best tournaments with the putter in his career)
- Not without downside (lost over four strokes putting in two of three tournaments prior, but the idea is that we saw proof of concept in the short-term)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
- Event prior: 52nd at Memorial
- Prior U.S. Open: 36th
- Dominated with the putter (something we could NOT have seen coming: he was a net -11.7 SG:P in his five measured events leading in
- Was showing some approach form (+10 SG:App in two events prior after bleeding strokes on approach in three of four)
- Did show some short game chops in the three months prior: +5.8 strokes ARG in those 14 measured rounds
2018: Brooks Koepka (+1)
- Event prior: 30th at St. Jude
- Prior U.S. Open: Won
- Gained strokes putting AND around the green in each of the four events prior
2017: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- Event prior: 37th at St. Jude
- Prior U.S. Open: 13th
- +3.8 strokes putting at St. Jude (showed us signs of life, consecutive tournaments of improvement leading in)
- Gained ARG in five of six measured lead-in rounds
2023 US Open: Notes
Many have been searching all week to make apt comparisons to other courses to give us a path to make picks. It’s tough, as LACC has a very distinctive look and has abnormal conditions for the area. It would be easy to simply comp Riviera and Torrey Pines as they are the main California courses. Yet it’s a California much different from any other Southern California course in terms of style and grass type. There are no Kikuya rough or Poa Annua greens at LACC. It is the first U.S. Open since 2005 at Pinehurst to sport Bermuda rough and fairways, and the putting surfaces are actually constructed of Bentgrass.
There are massive elevation changes and slopes, with a lot of shaved run-offs throughout the course. Although the fairways are generous in size, like all U.S. Opens, the USGA will have them playing like concrete to make them difficult to hold without rolling into those run-off areas—and then, the notorious U.S. Open rough.
Those familiar with the course have indicated that because of the slopes in the fairways, this is going to be a very difficult mental test off the tee. Players will need to be able to shape their shots into those slopes to keep them in the fairways to drop to the right side of the short grass to have an angle to the pin. It’s unlikely that bombard gouge alone is going to win the day with the driver.
The rough being Bermuda grass is very important too. While the rough may not be super deep in some spots, the ball can sink deep in the Bermuda and sit down, very difficult to control and very different from other U.S. Opens.
2023 US Open Golf Picks, Research & Course Preview
Plus, there is BARRANCA littered across the course and in play to roll into. If you do a BARRANCA drinking game during the broadcast, you’ll die. Basically, a BARRANCA is a sand and dirt ditch with vegetation, but it looks cool and adds to the aesthetic of the course.
Based on all these elements, the course it sounds the most like is Augusta National, weirdly enough. Obviously, there is limited rough at The Masters, but not having any level-ground approaches is common, as is the ability to think your way around the course to set up the proper approaches. From a lower level, Kapalua, St. Andrews, and TPC Deere Run are all other courses with predominantly uneven approach lies.
The big difference at LACC is going to be the firm conditions, monstrous length on approaches, pesky rough, and wonky greens. The course has very big greens with the exception of No. 7, which is one of the smallest greens ever—but even big greens have “fingers” where they can tuck pins and you might have a long, breaking slick putt to get to it.
No. 7 is the pint-sized Par 3 which will vacillate between 65 and 120 yards depending on the day.
The approach bucket for the week appears to be at both poles in terms of iron. The Par 5s are likely to lay up for most players and land in that range to go along with that mini Par 3. And don’t forget the players who have to hack it out of the rough and need to get up-and-down from 63 yards, that’s a U.S. Open classic.
From a recent Major Championship perspective, Shinnecock Hills and Southern Hills are likely the most similar, but there are enough unique elements to LACC to differentiate it.
2023 U.S. Open: Trends
There were nine players to shoot under par at the 2022 U.S. Open. For the 2022 season …
- 8 gained on the field in 3-putt avoidance in over 57% of rounds (Rory McIlroy was the exception)
- 7 gained on the field in Par 5 scoring in at least 60% of rounds (Keegan Bradley and Denny McCarthy were the exceptions)
- 6 gained on the field in approach in over 61% of their rounds
- 5 gained on the field in distance off the tee in over 79% of rounds
- 4 gained on the field in bogey avoidance in at least 70% of their rounds
- 3 gained on the field in opportunities gained in over 71% of their rounds
- 2 gained on the field in tee-to-green in 75% of their rounds
- 1 gained on the field in long putting (25+ feet) in over 25% of his rounds
The PGA TOUR moved the PGA TOUR Championship to May in 2019 and ever since that scheduling tweak, that event has been tied to U.S. Open success. Before Gary Woodland won the U.S. Open in 2019, he placed 8th at the PGA TOUR. Bryson DeChambeau won the COVID delayed U.S. Open … he finished fourth at the PGA TOUR that season. Jon Rahm prior to winning the U.S. Open in 2021 came in eighth at the PGA TOUR and last season, Matthew Fitzpatrick cashed a top-five at the PGA TOUR before capturing his first major title. If you need a reminder as to who was at the top of the leaderboard at the PGA TOUR Championship (Oak Hill) all the way back in May …
1. Brooks Koepka (DK odds pre-Memorial: +1200, post-Memorial: +1200)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+850, +750)
2. Viktor Hovland (+2500, +1800)
4. Bryson DeChambeau (+6000, +6000)
4. Cam Davis (+10000, +10000)
4. Kurt Kitayama (+20000, +20000)
7. Sepp Straka (+15000, +15000)
7. Rory McIlroy (+1000, +1400)
If you’re curious, the timing was different, but in 2013, Jason Dufner won the PGA TOUR Championship at Oak Hill less than two months after placing 4th at the U.S. Open.
2023 U.S. Open: Picks
FINAL DRAFTKINGS PICKS, WEATHER, OWNERSHIP BREAKDOWN
Jon Rahm
While all the attention goes to Scottie Scheffler for being better than 2000 Tiger Woods Tee-to-Green but not being able to make a putt, Rahm was the slightly lesser version of that at The Memorial. The Masters champ gained 11.4 strokes between driving and approach and dropped over five with his putter. The difference being, Rahm has been consistently great on the greens in his career, whereas the missed short putts have become commonplace for Iron Scheff. Between Scheffler, Brooks, Hovland, and the struggles of Rory, Rahm seems to be entering the U.S. Open devoid of any attention. But the truth is, he’s won four times already in 2023, has gained over 8.8 strokes on approach in four of his past seven starts, has lost strokes twice off the tee since 2019, and has actually gained at least 3.6 strokes on the field in eight of his past 14 events. Plus, he’s been absolutely dominant in the State of California in his career.
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Joaquin Niemann
The U.S. Open always felt like it would be the best fit for Niemann’s game. His low ball flight allows him to really take advantage of the firm and fast conditions, and this particular location at LACC may be a perfect storm for his skills. Bentgrass is the only green type he is gaining strokes on for his career, Los Angeles is the site of his biggest career win at Riviera, his game actually excels the more difficult the conditions and rough, and a ton of his career-best performances have come at venues with wildly uneven lies like Kapalua, Muirfield Village, and Augusta National.
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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Podcast of the Year and was a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time.
Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Sports Betting, Daily Fantasy, and Traditional Season Long Fantasy).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ThePME) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.