The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The field for the U.S. Open is 156 players and includes several players (pros and non-pros alike) who have gained entry through local and international qualifying. With the start list stretched to the max and the cut this week featuring just the top 60 and ties, we’re about to start the toughest four-day event of golf on the planet. For daily fantasy golf purposes, that means getting all six of your players through the cut this week will be even harder than usual, as (potentially) over 60% of the field will be dusted by Friday night.
The 2023 version of the U.S. Open sees us head west to the swanky Los Angeles Country Club which is situated in Beverly Hills, California. LA CC will be hosting the event for the first time in its existence and will be hosting its first professional golf tournament since 1940.
Despite some bombshell news dropping last week, all of the top players from both the PGA TOUR and LIV Golf will be in attendance. Scottie Scheffler is entering as the number one player in the world after an insane spring run that has seen him place 5th or better in each of his last four starts. Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm enter as winners of the first two majors of the season and you can rightfully expect these three men to be the top picks in both the DFS and betting arenas for the week.
Some other notable late entries (thanks to movement in the OWGR or their alternate status) include Emiliano Grillo, Michael Kim and Adam Schenk.
The Course
Los Angeles Country Club — Los Angeles, California
7,421 yards, par 70; Greens: Bentgrass
Designer: George C. Thomas (1927)
Restoration Architects (year): Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner and Geoff Shackelford (2010)
LA CC is almost certain to draw a ton of Riviera comparisons this week but when you look closer at the two courses, there are also a lot of distinct differences. The fairways at LA CC look like they will play much more wide open and likely give a slight advantage to players who aren’t necessarily the best at controlling their ball flight with the longstick. Misses off the tee will still hurt given the thick Bermuda rough in play but given the roll out involved on the firm fairways and the “Barrancas” situated around the course, how one does off the tee in spots at LA CC may actually involve more luck than skill.
Back to the Barrancas. LA CC has no water on the course but they do have Barrancas, which are essentially small gulleys, ditches, ravines, or embankments that are often filled with vegetation, brush, or some other kind of impediment. Barrancas on the course range in size and guard many of the greens and fairways. Hitting it in a Barranca could mean anything from a clean lie to a lost ball and multiple lost strokes. These should make life challenging around the greens, as getting it up and down will undoubtedly prove tough for all but the most skilled scramblers.
When you add in the technicality of the penalty areas and the wide fairways, one does see a path for shorter hitters to have a shot this week. The argument for bombers is strong as well and is pretty simple. It’s a long course and the setup will be punishing.
LA CC carries five par 3s and two of them are set to play over 280 yards a piece. Additionally, this venue has six par 4s that will play longer than 450 yards and the final three par 4s (16, 17, and 18) all look like they will play over 500 yards.
That said, these tough holes will be hard for everyone if the greens are firm (they likely will be). Then, around the green specialists should have the benefit, assuming they get the proper roll out off the tee (again, it seems likely). Ultimately, I wouldn’t be shocked to see LA CC play more like Pinehurst #2 or Chambers Bay, where non-traditional US Open setups led to names like Eric Compton, Rickie Fowler, Branden Grace and Cameron Smith all placing inside the top five for the week. Look for this venue to be spirited but also fair, as it brings in a little more of the field into play.
2023 Weather Outlook: The weather this week will be miles nicer than what we saw at the first two majors. The temperatures aren’t expected to be overly warm, with highs in the low 70 F range. This could actually help keep the greens somewhat receptive and if we do get a winning score in the double digits, the cooler weather will likely be the culprit. Mornings may actually be a little cool and it’s also likely the greens in the a.m. wave will play a tad softer as well. For single round showdown purposes, early starters will be players to key in on rounds one and two. Wind doesn’t look like it will make much of an appearance as none of the four days have gusts breaching 10 mph at the moment.
Last 5 winners
2022—Matthew Fitzpatrick -6 (over Will Zalatoris/Scottie Scheffler -5)
2021—Jon Rahm -6 (over Louis Oosthuizen -5)
2020—Bryson DeChambeau -6 (over Matthew Wolff even)
2019—Gary Woodland -13 (over Brooks Koepka -11)
2018—Brooks Koepka +1 (over Tommy Fleetwood +2)
Winning Trends
– Six of the past 16 U.S. Open winners had a win on the season before claiming their U.S. Open title.
– 11 of the past 13 winners of the U.S. Open had recorded at least four top 10s on the season before their U.S. Open victory.
– The last four winners of the US Open all placed inside the top 10 at the PGA Championship (the month prior) and gained over 7.0 strokes tee to green at that event.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Matthew Fitzpatrick — 2022 U.S. Open (6-under; **Brookline)
SG: OTT—+4.78
SG: APP—+5.73
SG: TOT—+16.38
SG: ATG—+5.65
SG: PUTT—+0.23
- Fitzpatrick is well known as an elite putter but his performance at Brookline last year was won due to an elite long game and some great work around the green.
- The Englishman ranked second in strokes gained off the tee stats and led the field in strokes gained around the green
Los Angeles Country Club – Player insight:
Collin Morikawa: “Having played at the Los Angeles Country Club, I have seen that it is a different type of golf course in terms of length that us golfers are used to playing… We are used to playing on the West Coast, so the grass and terrain will be different. It will require excellent ball striking from the tee to land on the greens. You cannot be hitting a ball too far, even though the fairways are wider than some of the U.S. Opens that we play because of the distance it will require. It will require players to hit very good iron shots from mid-range to long irons..”
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Cameron Smith +2500 and $9,000
Comparables:
Tommy Fleetwood +4000 and $7,900
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Scottie Scheffler ($11,400, Recent finishes: 3rd-T3): Scheffler has now gained over 15.0 strokes tee to green in each of his last three starts and finished T5 or better in each of his last four starts. His putting has been a major issue of late but if he can figure that club out, he’ll have a great shot at winning his second major this week.
2. Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900, Recent finishes: T3-T12): Hatton looked terrific last week in Canada, posting two rounds of 64. He’s coming off a solid PGA Championship too, where he opened with a 77 and closed at T15.
3. Viktor Hovland ($10,000, Recent finishes: win-T16): Hovland has been an absolute mainstay at each of the first two majors and grabbed the biggest win of his career two weeks ago at Muirfield. The Norwegian has gained over 2.5 strokes putting in each of his last three starts.
4. Adam Scott ($7,500, Recent finishes: T9-T29): The veteran is absolutely destroying it off the tee right now and looks to be in good form to give it a run at this longer track. He’s posted top 10 finishes in three of his last four PGA TOUR starts.
5. Rickie Fowler ($7,500, Recent finishes: T6-T9 ): Despite a missed cut at the PGA Championship, Fowler still looks in great form. He’s posted top 10 finishes in his last two starts and has seen his approach play take a big tick upwards Oak Hill.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Too much value to fade Scheffler
Considering the depth of the field and some of the players we have available to us in the $7,000 range this week, it makes almost zero sense to fade Scottie Scheffler ($11,500) in this format. Tee to green stats aside, Scheffler’s just been a magnet for the top of the leaderboard this year, posting top 12 finishes in every single PGA start. In that so mentioned $7,000 range, both Adam Scott ($7,500) and Si Woo Kim ($7,300) look like solid values to use with Scheffler. Scott brings a US open record that includes five top 20 finishes over the last decade. Bryson DeChambeau ($7,600) is another upside target for this range, as he was one of the only players able to keep with Scheffler and Brooks Koepka ($10,800) at Oak Hill. Veterans Dustin Johnson ($8,300) and Keegan Bradley ($7,600) are a couple of other names to consider lower down.
Tournaments: Cantlay may finally go under the radar
When it comes to majors and big events, the public generally loves to pile in on Patrick Cantlay ($10,300), who often looks so good in regular PGA stops but has yet to crack the code in a major. With Cantlay over $10,000 in price this week (and plenty of big names available in the $9,000 range, you have to think the desire to roster him will cool off a bit at the second major. He’s proven to love this area of the world, posting a win at Sherwood CC during the 2021 Zozo and multiple top five finishes at Riviera. Tony Finau ($8,800) is another name who has cooled off of late and may not get much love in the DFS streets. However, the five-time PGA winner has posted two top five finishes at nearby Riviera over his career. Mito Pereira ($7,200) is another name to remember for GPP builds, as he gained a ton of strokes tee to green at the PGA Championship and has played well in California on multiple occasions. Some sub $7,000 punt plays to consider include Kurt Kitayama ($6,800), Adam Svensson ($6,800) and Dylan Wu ($6,400).
MY PICK: Cameron Smith ($9,000)
All things considered, this venue looks like a place that Cameron Smith will be able to handle just fine. The wider fairways at Los Angeles Country Club will certainly help a pure bomber like Bryson DeChambeau ($7,600) — who I almost featured here — but may help a player like Cameron Smith even more, who has a little better power than people realize off the tee but little in the way of accuracy. One thing we know for certain is that if Smith can keep it together with his driver, there’s every chance that the rest of his game is good enough to win this event for him.
Despite losing 2.5 strokes off the tee at the PGA Championship, Smith was still able to grind out a T9 finish at Oak Hill, a stupendous result when you consider that pure power golf that was needed to win there. Good long iron play will be necessary at LA CC as well but Smith has proven that when the fairways are generous enough, he can excel. He was 4th at the wide open Chambers Bay back in 2015 (another west coast US Open venue) and has already posted two top five finishes at Augusta National, where hitting fairways isn’t difficult or a necessity for success.
Smith’s looked in great form of late, posting a top 10 at the last major, and also comes in off four consecutive top 10 finishes on LIV. With the future between the two Tours now having a little clarity, you just might see a rejuvenated Smith come into LA CC on a mission to remind the world that he’s a name to remember when you’re debating the best of the best. At +2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook he’s a more than sensible outright addition to betting cards and a solid value at just $9,000 for PGA DFS lineups.
MY SLEEPER: Si Woo Kim ($7,200)
Si Woo Kim is playing some great golf at the moment and looks like a live longshot to challenge for this tournament. The South Korean already has a win under his belt in 2023 at the Sony Open and has seen his game come back to life in late spring after posting top five finishes at both the Memorial and Byron Nelson. While his entire body of work in 2023 is encouraging, it’s his performance at the Memorial that really catches the eye.
Even though he wasn’t able to finish the job at Muirfield, Kim showed real grit and belief in coming back from some weekend double bogies which, at the time, looked like they would knock him well down the leaderboard. Instead of imploding, Kim managed his way to a T4 finish, gaining over 12 strokes tee to green for the week in the process and 3.8 strokes around the green.
Kim can be inconsistent around the greens but he’s undoubtedly one of the world’s best scramblers when he’s on and if he displays the same kind of sharpness at LA CA that he did at Muirfield, his long game is good enough to keep him in the mix this week. Having posted a top five at Riviera in 2019 there is no reason to think he won’t find the more technical and rustic Los Angeles Country Club a solid fit either. At just $7,200, he’s a solid value to target in DFS and makes for a nice ladder bet in the top 5/10/20 markets this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
