After splitting the first two games of this divisional series, the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will square off one more time in the rubber match on Sunday afternoon. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Cincy ace Hunter Greene (1-4, 3.92 ERA) will take the hill for the first time in 10 days after battling hip tightness, while St. Louis turns to veteran Adam Wainwright (2-1, 5.97).
The Cardinals enter as narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Reds at +100. The run total is set at 8.
Reds-Cardinals picks: Sunday, June 11th
Injury report
Reds
Out: SP Graham Ashcraft (calf), RP Derek Law (flexor), 1B/OF Wil Myers (shoulder), 3B/OF Nick Senzel (knee), OF Jake Fraley (wrist)
Cardinals
Out: OF Tyler O’Neill (back), OF Lars Nootbaar (back)
Starting pitchers
Hunter Greene vs. Adam Wainwright
Greene had his turn in the rotation skipped as he battled hip tightness over the past week, but before that setback, the fireballer was pitching as well as he had all season. The righty has allowed five runs on just six hits in 19 innings over his last three starts, with a whopping 29 strikeouts. He’s one of the hardest throwers in the game, with a fastball that averages 98.6 mph, and when he keeps the heater elevated and out of the middle of the zone, he’s awfully tough to hit (87th-percentile whiff rate, 92nd-percentile K rate). When he doesn’t though, the contact is very loud (25th-percentile barrel rate).
At 41 years old, Wainwright is on his last legs for the Cardinals, and early returns this year have not been great: a 5.97 ERA with a whopping 45 hits and 10 walks allowed in just 31 innings of work. He’s yet to give up fewer than three runs or complete a full six innings all season, with the worst expected batting average and whiff rate of any starter in baseball. Even his famed curveball has been tagged to the tune of a .335 xBA and 4.97 xSLG.
Over/Under pick
The first two games of this series totaled 11 and 12 runs, and with uncertainty around Greene’s health after an extended layoff, I’m banking on that trend continuing Sunday. With Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain injecting life into this lineup, Cincy has put up 29 runs over their last five games, and Wainwright is almost guaranteed to give up three or four — more than enough to ensure this over hits, even if Greene doesn’t show any rust.
Pick: Over 8
Moneyline pick
It’s very, very hard to back Wainwright at this stage of his career, especially with this Reds lineup looking deeper and more dangerous than it has in a long time. The righty simply doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff anymore, and professional hitters like Jonathan India, TJ Friedl, De La Cruz and McLain should take enough advantage to back Greene even if his command backslides a bit. (The Cardinals were averaging just 2.5 runs a game over the last two weeks coming into this series.)
Pick: Reds
