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The NFL is back for Week 2, and I know I’m fascinated to see if it ends up as crazy as Week 1. We saw nine underdogs win outright upsets, which means any predictions based on odds and expectations went out the window in a hurry.
One way we can try and get a handle on a given week is using implied totals. The implied total involves dividing the over/under number in half, then dividing the point spread in half and subtracting the latter from the former. We get the totals and spreads from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Using Thursday Night Football, the total is 41 and the spread is an even field goal. So for Washington, we subtract -1.5 from 20.5 and for the Giants we subtracted +1.5 from 20.5. I could just say for Washington we added 1.5 to 20.5, but for purposes of creating the calculation in the spreadsheet, it’s a minus.
This is very much not a science. Last week, the Packers implied total was 26.5 while the Saints was 23. The Saints won the game 38-3 and were tied with the Cardinals for second most points behind the 49ers (41). Implied totals had the Saints at 23, the Cardinals 25.25, and the 49ers at 26.5.
While inexact, it is one more data point as you sort through your fantasy options. If you see a player ranked poorly for the week in re-draft leagues or is available for cheap in DFS, but his team’s implied total is on the higher end, you might just have a sleeper on your hand.
Below is a look at each team’s implied total for Week 2.
2021 NFL implied totals, Week 2
| Rank | Team | Implied Total | Spread | O/U | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Implied Total | Spread | O/U | Opponent |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32.25 | -12.5 | 52 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2 | Cleveland Browns | 30.00 | -12.5 | 47.5 | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 30.00 | -6.0 | 54 | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 29.75 | -11.5 | 48 | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 29.25 | -4.0 | 54.5 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 29.25 | -3.5 | 55 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 7 | Arizona Cardinals | 27.00 | -3.5 | 50.5 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 26.75 | -6.5 | 47 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 9 | San Francisco 49ers | 26.50 | -3.0 | 50 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 10 | Los Angeles Rams | 26.00 | -3.5 | 48.5 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboys | 25.75 | +3.5 | 55 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 25.50 | -3.5 | 47.5 | Miami Dolphins |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | 25.50 | -6.0 | 45 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 14 | Baltimore Ravens | 25.25 | +4.0 | 54.5 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 15 | New England Patriots | 24.50 | -6.0 | 43 | New York Jets |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 24.25 | -3.5 | 45 | Carolina Panthers |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | 24.00 | -2.5 | 45.5 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 18 | Tennessee Titans | 24.00 | +6.0 | 54 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 23.50 | +3.5 | 50.5 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 23.50 | +3.0 | 50 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 22.50 | +3.5 | 48.5 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 22 | Miami Dolphins | 22.00 | +3.5 | 47.5 | Buffalo Bills |
| 23 | Washington | 22.00 | -3.0 | 41 | New York Giants |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 21.50 | +2.5 | 45.5 | Chicago Bears |
| 25 | Carolina Panthers | 20.75 | +3.5 | 45 | New Orleans Saints |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 20.25 | +6.5 | 47 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 19.75 | +12.5 | 52 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 19.50 | +6.0 | 45 | Denver Broncos |
| 29 | New York Giants | 19.00 | +3.0 | 41 | Washington |
| 30 | New York Jets | 18.50 | +6.0 | 43 | New England Patriots |
| 31 | Detroit Lions | 18.25 | +11.5 | 48 | Green Bay Packers |
| 32 | Houston Texans | 17.50 | +12.5 | 47.5 | Cleveland Browns |
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