Breaking down series lines for Lakers vs. Heat in 2020 NBA Finals [UPDATE]

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat will meet in the 2020 NBA Finals in the NBA bubble in Orlando, Florida. The series will start on Wednesday at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC. LeBron James opened as the favorite to win NBA MVP. We already went over the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for the award. So MVP out of the way, let’s set our focus to the series line and possible outcomes. We’ll go over the O/U for games in the series and odds for how the series will finish up.

Lakers vs. Heat series odds

To win series: Lakers -1667, Heat +900

Series Correct Score

Lakers win 4-1: -143
Lakers win 4-2: +210
Lakers win 4-3: +650
Heat win 4-3: +1500
Heat win 4-2: +3300

Note: lines updated as of Oct. 5 at 12:46 p.m. ET. Betting splits updated before Game 1.

Update, Oct. 1 — After Game 1 went to the Lakers, the Heat getting a sweep was eliminated from the pool. Sorry if you were on that ... There’s still pretty good juice on the Lakers to sweep or to win in five games. If you don’t feel like laying money on the actual games, going with either of those seems solid. The series line is pretty tilted toward the Lakers, so essentially getting L.A. to win the series at +110 or +200, get on it.

Update: Sept. 30 — Here’s a look at some betting splits from DraftKings Sportsbook for the series correct score market. Most of the action is coming in on the Lakers to win the series in either six or five games. The Heat in six games is also trendy getting the most amount of juice among popular betting options. Four of the top five options among handle are the Lakers winning the series.

Total Games Played

Over 6.5: +480
Under 6.5: -770

Update: Oct. 5 — So we’re locked into at least five games in the 2020 NBA Finals, so this line is banking on the Lakers (or Heat) ending the series by Game 6. If it goes the distance and we get Game 7, you’ve got a lot of juice on that bet.

Update: Sept. 30 — Most of the action here is on over or under 5.5 games, so again, most of the public believes this series will end either in five or six games. If you’re thinking a sweep happens or the series goes the distance, there’s some value there, but know you’re against the public.

Game Spread

Heat +1.5: +370
Lakers -1.5: -530
Heat +2.5: +115
Lakers -2.5: -143

Update: Oct. 5 — The most likely outcome at this point is for the Lakers to win the series either 4-1 or 4-2. Thus, the Heat getting +1.5 would only be able to hit if it goes to Game 7. That’s why that line is juiced up the most. Lakers -2.5 games is actually a decent line. If the Lakers win the series 4-1, which is what they’ve done all postseason, then you get a nice little hit. I think it’s either the Heat get back into the series or the Lakers end it in five games.

Update: Sept. 30 — Series spread outcome is getting a decent amount of action on the Heat to keep it close and not lose in five games. If the Heat lose 4-2 or 4-3, they’ll cover 2.5 games. The line isn’t juiced at all but it seems like a safe enough play given this series should be more competitive than what we’ve seen against the Lakers. For the Lakers in 5 crowd, getting +44 on the Lakers to cover 2.5 games is ideal.

As you can see, there’s a lot of value on the Miami side and not so much from the Lakers. The Lakers are heavy favorites pretty much all around, so if you’re thinking this series will be more competitive than the books, getting on the Heat now makes sense. The thought from the oddsmakers is that the Heat will need seven games to defeat the Lakers. This may not be the case considering how well Miami has played this postseason. You could argue the Heat have had a tougher road to the finals facing the Bucks and Celtics. L.A’s toughest competition was the Nuggets and that series ended in five games.

If you think the Lakers will make quick work of the Heat and win the series 4-1, there’s value there in some game lines. Under 5.5 games played in the series is +123 and the Lakers winning the series by 2.5 games is +144. So just a few spots where you can get some juice from the books. My guess is this series goes at least six games, so Lakers or Heat 4-2 would be my first clicks, per-say.

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