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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 18

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Carolina Panthers v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

Although we’ve come...To the end of the road. Still, I can’t let go. It’s unnatural. You belong to me. I belong to you.

We all knew that this day would come, it’s almost time for a season review, but no need to be blue, as we have one last regular season slate to pursue. Then a few in the playoffs too. So let’s buckle down and iron out who should be in the player queue. Not all can lead to a coup. Some just need to be like glue, so that the entire structure does not come undue. There are many paths to victory, so we must be attentive to every hue. Luck comes to those who have a clue, especially this week because there will be many players making their season or career debuts. Information will be flowing like the Nile over the next few days, so no thought or idea can be permanent like a tattoo. Let’s dance around all the minefields to Erykah Badu and grab all the bags because the knowledge of C.R.E.A.M. was given to us by Wu.

There are 13 games this week. PIT/BAL and HOU/IND play on Saturday. BUF/MIA play on Sunday night. There is no Monday night game.

Many of the teams are locked into their situations, so motivation will be low for starters to play.

BAL, KC, CLE and SF are locked into their slots.

CHI, NYG, WAS, ARI, CAR, DEN, CIN, LVR, NYJ, TEN, LAC and NE are out of the playoffs.

LAR and DET are in the playoffs with their seeding slots likely determined. Some low-probability events can change that, though.

MIA, BUF, DAL and PHI are playing for higher seeds.

MIN, ATL, NO, SEA, GB, TB, PIT, IND and JAX are playing for their playoff lives.

DraftKings Sportsbook has three games with a total of at least 45 points: MIN/DET (45), SEA/ARI (48) and DAL/WAS (46). There are six games with a total at or below 40 - JAX/TEN (39.5), CLE/CIN (38.5), TBB/CAR (37.5), NYJ/NEP (30.5), KCC/LAC (35.5) and DEN/LVR (38), There is one double-digit favorite - DAL -13 over WAS. Six games are within a field goal: SEA -2.5 over ARI, LVR -2.5 over DEN, GBP -3 over CHI, LAC -3 over KCC, NEP -2 over NYJ and DET -3 over MIN. There are five home dogs - TEN, CAR, NYG, ARI and WAS.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, $8,100 — I really wanted to go with Prescott this week, but I can’t get the home/road splits for the Cowboys out of my head. Granted, it’s a small sample size. So is my head but that’s another conversation. If the ownership tilts heavily away from Prescott, then I may shift back toward him, but as of now, I’m going with Hurts. The Eagles can still get the number two seed if they win and Dallas loses. The floor for Hurts is so high due to rushing prowess and Brotherly Shove. He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in all but three games this season while going over 30 three times. Hurts faced this Giants team two weeks ago and went for 27.44 DKFP. Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) gave that Giants offense a spark, and the Eagles defense has been susceptible, so there’s a chance Hurts will need to maintain aggression in this one.

Other Options – Dak Prescott ($8,000), Jordan Love ($6,600)

Value

Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $5,300 — Taylor replaced DeVito two weeks ago against the Eagles and went 7-of-16 for 133 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He also rushed twice for 15 yards the next week, TyGod received the start and went 27-of-41 for 319 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He did get sacked six times but also rushed six times for 40 yards. The Eagles have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns. The Eagles are still playing for a better seed while the Giants would like nothing better than to play spoiler. In addition, while Taylor is 34 years old, this is the last year of his contract.

Other Options – Nick Mullens ($5,100), PJ Walker ($4,600)


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Running Back

Stud

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, $7,600 — Prior to last week’s 9.6 DKFP performance, White had been one of the most consistent fantasy backs in the game, going for at least 15 DKFP in 10 games with three over 20. He received at least 20 carries in six of those contests with at least four targets in seven. In addition, he got 23 red zone rushing attempts with five targets. Tampa Bay is fighting for their playoff life and now White faces a Panthers defense that has allowed fourth-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns. White went for 19.6 DKFP when these teams met five weeks ago.

Other Options – Kenneth Walker ($6,500) if healthy, Zamir White ($6,000)

Value

Pierre Strong, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, $4,000 – There is uncertainty as to how the Browns will address Week 18, but the team said that they will likely be resting their starters. If so, Strong has a chance to garner the bulk of the running back work. Strong has blazing 4.37 40-speed and faces a Bengals defense that has been soft against the run this season. PJ Walker ($4,600) will likely start, so the pass-happy ways under Flacco could be muted to pound the rock.

Other Options – Elijah Mitchell ($5,800), Zach Charbonnet ($5,000) if Walker is out, Tyjae Spears ($4,600), Jordan Mason ($4,600), Keontay Ingram ($4,400), Ronnie Rivers ($4,000)


Wide Receiver

Stud

AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, $8,700 — Brown and the entire passing attack for the Eagles haven’t been humming like they were earlier in the season. These teams met two weeks ago and Brown only went for 14 DKFP. He did receive 11 targets, though, and there will be opportunities for big plays against a Giants team that blitzes at the second-highest rate and allows the most YAC. Last week was a Julio Jones game. Unless we hop in the DeLorean and go back a few years, I’ll take my chances that this is an AJ Brown week.

Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($9,300), AJ Brown ($8,700), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600), Mike Evans ($7,400), DK Metcalf ($7,200), Chris Olave ($6,700), Calvin Ridley ($6,500)

Value

Darius Slayton, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $4,000 – Well, I guess I’m stacking up this game. Slayton is the deep threat for the Giants and TyGod, while not the most prolific deep ball passer, isn’t shy to let it rip when the opportunity presents itself. Two games ago, Slayton caught a 69-yard bomb against the Eagles. The Eagles pass defense has allowed the fifth-most air yards on the season.

Other Options - Tyler Lockett ($5,600), Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($4,800), Demarcus Robinson ($4,500), Curtis Samuel ($4,300), Julio Jones ($3,900), Brandon Johnson ($3,400), Jaylin Hyatt ($3,300), Tutu Atwell ($3,300), Ronnie Bell ($3,200), Chris Conley ($3,000)


Tight End

Stud

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, $5,400 – Engram has had a solid season, garnering at least five targets in every game, with nine games over eight targets and three games with double-digit targets. He has three games with double-digit receptions and, while he hasn’t exceeded 100 yards receiving, he has four games with over 80 yards. He has scored only three touchdowns with two in one game. The matchup isn’t great, though, as the Titans have allowed the fewest fantasy points on average to the position and limited Engram to 6.9 DKFP in the prior meeting. That said, the importance of the game, lack of motivation for the Titans, the possible return of Trevor Lawrence ($6,800) and the expected volume keep me on Engram.

Other Options – Dallas Goedert ($5,100)

Value

Harrison Bryant, Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, $2,500 The Browns love throwing to the tight end, as the 123 targets is the third-most to the position on the season. With the Browns likely resting starters, Bryant should be on the field a lot. With Walker under center, more targets will likely filter to the position as well. During weeks 6 to 8 when Walker was playing, tight ends saw a total of 27 targets over three games.

Other Options – Darren Waller ($4,700), Juwan Johnson ($3,600), Noah Gray ($2,500), Charlie Woerner ($2,500)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Buccaneers D/ST at Carolina Panthers, $3,900 – Bucs win, Bucs make the playoffs. Easy peasy. The D/ST gets to tee off on Bryce Young ($4,800), who was sacked six times and threw an interception last week. Tampa Bay is third in blitz rate and, while they are towards the bottom in pressure rate, the unit has racked up 45 sacks, good for seventh in the league. When these teams met in early December, Tampa Bay held Carolina to 18 points while racking up four sacks and an interception.

Other Options – Cowboys D/ST ($4,100)

Value

Jaguars D/ST at Tennessee Titans, $3,200 – Jags are in win-or-go-home while the Titans will not be remembered for this season. There’s a chance that Tennessee sits their vets to get a look at some of the younger players. The Jaguars are ninth in blitz rate and will likely send a ton of pressure to whoever is under center for the Titans. In addition, there’s a good chance the Jaguars offense will put up points in this one. They are currently implied for a healthy 22.5 points, which should tilt the Titans more toward the air.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.