Before heading to Arizona for the Phoenix Open, the PGA TOUR will host their third consecutive event in California this week, with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. As one of the PGA TOUR’s eight signature events this season, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will feature only 80 players and no cut, after being a full-sized tournament since its inception. Another change for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is that this event will only feature two courses this week, instead of three. Each player competing this week will begin the event with one round at Pebble Beach Golf Links (par 72, 6,972 yards, POA greens) and one round at Spyglass Hill (par 72, 7,041 yards, POA greens). Then, all the golfers will return to Pebble Beach Golf Links for their final two rounds. With three of the four rounds being played on this par 72 and all previous SG data from this event coming from Pebble Beach Golf Links, this track is obviously the course we will be focusing on for research this week.
After facing the longest course on the PGA TOUR in the South Course of Torrey Pines last week, Pebble Beach Golf Links is the third shortest venue used on the PGA TOUR. Also, this iconic venue presents the smallest greens of any course on the circuit and there are 116 bunkers on the grounds. Pebble Beach Golf Links is a prime example of a second shot course and succeeding here comes down to having a superb performance with both your irons and your putter. Of the past five AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champions, three have ranked inside the top six in SG APP during their victories. Furthermore, two of the past four winners of this event have finished the week top-three in SGP. Finally, with five of the 10 par fours falling between 400-450 yards at Pebble Beach Golf Links, this is a crucial range of holes this week. Justin Rose finished 10th in efficiency on these holes during his win at Pebble Beach last year, making him the third victor of this event over the last five years to finish top-10 in the metric.
Below, I break down four of my favorite DraftKings value plays for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which are all priced under $7.5K.
Adam Hadwin ($7,300) – Hadwin has posted a top-20 in two of his last three tries at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and is poised for another high finish at the famous venue this weekend. The veteran is on the heels of a T6 at the American Express, marking his fifth made cut and fourth finish of T16 or better in his last six starts. Included in this sample is a runner-up finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October, when Hadwin finished one stroke shy of winner Tom Kim.
Hadwin’s putting has been elite, with him ranking 18th in SGP over his last 50 rounds and he also ranks 19th in 400-450-yard par four efficiency during this timeframe, which is outstanding news with a trip to Pebble Beach up next. Hadwin is a terrific bargain at this cheap price tag, which is notably a $1K decrease since his last start.
Eric Cole ($7,300) – Cole is a great bounce-back candidate this week after missing the cut at the Farmers Open. As a short OTT player, it wasn’t a surprise to see Cole be sent home early from the lengthy Torrey Pines for the second year in a row. The 35-year-old’s strong suits are his work with his irons and putter – he ranks eighth in SG APP and 10th in SGP over his last 50 rounds - and a date with a second-shot course like Pebble Beach is exactly what the doctor ordered for Cole to get back on track. Despite missing the cut last week, he still gained strokes on APP for the 11th start in a row. Furthermore, Cole had made a whopping 18 straight cuts before Torrey Pines, with 12 of these finishes being top-25 results.
As just the 351st-ranked golfer in the world, Cole impressed in his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut last season, carding a T15 finish. Now, he returns to the multi-course event as a much more polished player, sitting at No.40 in the world golf rankings. Cole is severely underpriced at this low salary and could get slightly overlooked with him coming off a missed cut.
Kevin Yu ($7,200) – Yu shined in his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut last season, recording a T7 finish and returns to Pebble Beach playing the best golf of his career. After finishing T3rd at the American Express, Yu kept his foot on the gas and posted a T6 at the Farmers Open this past week, bringing him up to a career-best No.114 in the world golf rankings. In that latter finish, Yu opened the week with an 8-under 64 on the North Course, marking the lowest score of the Farmers Open. Additionally, the 25-year-old posted a 5-under 67 on the South Course on Sunday, which was one shot shy of tying the lowest score of the final round. These are extremely impressive numbers and when we compare this world-class field’s last eight rounds, no player has gained more total strokes than Yu.
By no means should the blossoming young player be this cheap and Yu needs to be one of your core plays this week.
Mark Hubbard ($6,300) – Hubbard is an elite full punt at this near minimum salary. Extending his cut streak to three in a row last week at the Farmers Open, Hubbard carded a T20 finish, while leading the field with 8.4 strokes gained on APP, which also set new a career-high for the veteran. Hubbard now ranks eighth in SG APP when we compare this stacked field’s last 24 rounds. Looking to build off this impressive showing, the 34-year-old now heads to Pebble Beach, where tallied a T20 finish a year ago, which marked his fifth made cut in seven attempts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
If Hubbard can replicate his ball-striking performance from Torrey Pines at Pebble Beach, he will effortlessly outproduce this low salary, possibly with a top-20 finish.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.