I’m not really sure how to dress this all up. If I’m being completely honest with myself, this is just a pretty basic Wednesday slate in the middle of the NBA regular season. Eight games. Couple west coast tip-offs past 9:00 p.m. ET. Two teams on the second night of a back-to-back. We’ve all seen this before.
Still, that doesn’t mean there aren’t values to find. Let’s dive in.
SF/PF David Roddy, Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat, $4,200
The hits just keep on coming for the Grizzlies. In the middle of Monday’s victory over the Raptors, Santi Aldama (knee) was forced to leave the game due to injury. The big man has since been ruled out for this evening’s contest, joining a litany of high-impact players on Memphis’ IR, including Luke Kennard ($5,500; thigh), who is questionable. While I’d anticipate Xavier Tillman ($5,400) to re-enter the team’s starting lineup in place of Aldama, keep an eye on Roddy as a value option. The forward led the Grizzlies’ reserves in minutes against Toronto (23.2) — even playing in Memphis’ closing lineup in the fourth quarter — and his 23.3% usage rate trailed only Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,200) and the aforementioned Kennard. Roddy’s also managed at least 20.0 DKFP in five of his last seven contests, so the production has been consistent even with Aldama available. At the end of the day, someone has to score for the Grizzlies, right?
SF/PF Saddiq Bey, Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, $5,100
Bey isn’t the first person you think of when brainstorming the beneficiaries to the absence of Trae Young (concussion) — that would be Dejounte Murray ($8,400) and Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,000). However, Bey’s usage rate jumps from just 14.0% when playing alongside Young to 21.1% in the 849 possessions he’s played without his All-Star teammate in 2023-24. That’s a pretty significant change in approach and opportunity. It’s not like Bey is hurting for minutes, either. Bey is averaging 32.4 minutes per contest, which happens to sit third on Atlanta’s roster. That figure climbs to 35.1 minutes since the beginning of December, roughly the time when Bey joined the Hawks’ starting five. In a matchup with a Warriors squad that ranks dead-last in defensive rating in the month of January (127.7), I’d expect several Atlanta assets, including Bey, to have a big night.
SF Cody Martin, Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, $4,300
Let’s first address the elephant in the room: Martin is technically listed as questionable for tonight’s contest with a knee injury. In fact, Martin was unable to play in the Hornets’ thrilling victory over the Timberwolves on Monday, and has been limited to just 11 total games so far in 2023-24. So, there’s two scenarios here. In the first, Martin returns from his ailment and re-joins the starting lineup in place of the recently traded Terry Rozier, who was sitting second on the team with a massive 27.2% usage rate. Martin logs about 30 minutes and is a clear threat for 5x or 6x value against a Pistons defense that’s allowing 125.3 opponent points per 100 possessions so far in January. In the second scenario, Martin is ruled out, which opens up a ton of minutes for Nick Smith Jr. ($4,100), who would be viable for lineups. Either way, someone is going to be a value.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.