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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks Today: NFL Week 16 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Denver Broncos v Detroit Lions Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.

No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.

OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.

Let’s dive into Week 16.

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Game Stack: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Jared Goff ($6,900) — Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) — Josh Reynolds ($3,300) — Justin Jefferson ($8,100)

The Lions face the Vikings this week in a dome game that has a total of 47.0, where the Lions themselves have an implied team total of 25.0.

To sum things up, this should be another good spot for Jared Goff to produce in fantasy. He threw a career-high five TD passes last week and should have to throw the ball a lot in this spot as well. Minnesota ranks 10th in EPA per rush on defense but has allowed a few big games to the QB position, including last week when Jake Browning threw for 324 yards and 2 TDs.

The Lions also average 35.6 pass attempts per game (11th most) and the Vikings allow 35.7 against (10th most). That also makes this a good spot to load up on the Lions WRs. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the obvious candidate, and while he’s expensive, he’s earned the price tag. St. Brown rarely comes off the field and produced a healthy 16.0 yards per catch average last week, along with 27.0 DKFP. The Vikings' pass defense has had issues slowing down the opposing team’s number-one WRs all season and they tend to blitz a ton (first in blitz rate), which often leaves their corners in man — and provides expert route runners like St. Brown the chance to pile up the catches.

Pairing Goff and St. Brown in a spot where the Lions could be throwing a ton is a no-brainer, but adding in the competent Josh Reynolds to complete the three-man stack is where the fun begins. Reynolds is only $3,300 and opens up the salary space to roster another stud from this game if we please. Reynolds has been their most consistent downfield threat outside of St. Brown for most of the year and has scored 5 TDs on the year to date — and gone for over 40 yards in two straight games.

As mentioned above, the main attraction of using Reynolds is that it means we can also go big in our comeback play from the Vikings — which is great because the last time I checked, Justin Jefferson is still playing for Minnesota. The Vikings superstar ended his first game back with the team with 7 catches for 84 yards on 10 targets, and faces a Lions defense this week that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points and 4th most TDs to opposing WRs this season.

Double-stacking the two big WRs from this game isn’t easy but using the cheap Reynolds gives us the salary flexibility needed to pull it off. This should be a somewhat unique stars and scrubs stack from a game with shootout potential, making it ideal for big-field GPPs.

Quarterback: Justin Fields ($7,100), Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

Fields had a bit of a slow day last week, but he was facing a top-tier defensive front in Cleveland and the Bears played very conservatively late in that game with the lead. This week, the Bears are at home and are playing a bottom-tier defense in the Cardinals (31st in EPA per play on defense), whom Fields should be able to pick apart with his arm and legs.

The Cardinals have allowed 7.7 yards per attempt over their last three games and have also allowed rushing QBs like Taylor Heinicke and Daniel Jones to go for big weeks on the ground against them this season. Fields has been rushing far more since he came back from a finger injury, averaging 62.75 yards rushing over his last four starts. For DFS, he also has an easy stacking partner in DJ Moore ($6,900), who is going up against a Cardinals secondary that ranks 32nd in EPA per dropback and has allowed the 11th most TDs to opposing WRs this year.

He’s expensive, but if you’re not stacking the Lions game, pivoting to Fields as your upside play at QB this week does make a lot of sense.

Running Back

Top End: Chuba Hubbard ($5,700), Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys

Hubbard is averaging 23.0 carries over his last three games and is playing a Packers team that ranks 22nd in success rate against the run and is 31st in yards per carry against over the past three weeks (5.3 ypc). While the Panthers are certainly a poor team and could be trailing in this game, Green Bay is hardly infallible and comes in as losers of two in a row (both games they lost as favorites). They could also be without S Darnell Savage and LB De’Vondre Campbell on defense this week as well making an already poor rush defense even worse.

Hubbard has already gone for games of 20.2 and 25.4 DKFP over the last four weeks and has now essentially banished Miles Sanders ($4,400) to the bench — after Sanders took just six carries for two yards against Atlanta. In this spot, against a failing rush defense, Hubbard should have a great shot at approaching 20+ carries again and looks like a great value to squeeze in with a high-value stack like the Lions-Vikings one we featured above.

Low End: Antonio Gibson ($5,200), Washington Commanders vs New York Jets

The Jets have injury issues at RB as Brian Robinson Jr. has yet to practice this week and is now out for Week 16. Gibson split lead back duties with Chris Rodriguez ($4,500) last week and the two will likely do the same again in Week 16. While Rodriguez may get some goal-line carries, it’s Gibson’s PPR upside that I like targeting in this spot. The Jets have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season and have also allowed four receiving TDs to RBs as well.

Gibson has caught at least three passes in each of his last five games and while his TD total remains dismal, there is hope for some positive regression in that category given that the Jets tend to allow more catches out of the backfield.

Wide Receiver

Top End: Amari Cooper ($6,400) Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

The Browns take on a Texans team that has operated as a classic funnel to the pass defense for most of the season. While the Texans are top 10 in success rate against the run, they also rank out just 21st in success rate per dropback (against) and 20th in EPA per dropback (against).

That makes this a good spot for Amari Cooper to potentially post his second big game in a row with Joe Flacco ($5,500) with whom he combined for four catches, 108 yards, and a TD last week. Cooper remains one of the most underrated WR1s in the league, and while his price has risen, his upside with the strong-armed Flacco is much higher than it was with the lesser names that Cleveland was trotting out at QB early in the year. Given the ‘Texans' weaker pass defense, Cooper’s still a solid value and a great upside target to build around in Week 16.

Top Value: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500), Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans

Smith-Njiga has started to become a more integral part of the offense in Seattle of late and comes into this game with 22 targets now over his last three games. He showcased his versatility and explosiveness last week against the Eagles, taking in three pivotal catches on one drive, while also grabbing the game-winning TD on a 29-yard pass from Drew Lock.

The Titans present him with another great matchup to keep the momentum going. Tennessee has ceded the sixth-most fantasy points this year to opposing WRs and allowed Noah Brown to post an 8-82-1 day against them last week. Smith-Njigba still has to fight for targets in this busy Seattle receiving core but he’s getting better push by the team of late and remains too cheap for DFS purposes, especially against a weak secondary like Tennessee.

Tight End: Trey McBride ($5,700), Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

While I don’t necessarily love this spot for a big day of passing from Kyler Murray ($6,400), someone will have to catch the 20+ passes he throws and McBride has proven he’s more than capable of earning those targets. The TE has averaged 9.0 targets a game over his last five starts and converted 84.4% of those targets into catches to date. The Cardinals are banged up at WR, with both Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch likely to miss this contest, meaning it’s possible McBride will push into the double-digit territory of balls thrown his way this week.

Just to put a bow on this, the Bears aren’t necessarily a poor matchup for McBride either. They’ve allowed the third most fantasy points, second most receptions, and third most TDs to opposing TEs this year. Even at $5,700, McBride looks underpriced in this spot and makes for a nice core piece to build around at TE in Week 16.

Defense/Special Teams: Chicago Bears ($2,800) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Bears’ defense has been fantastic for DFS of late. They have recorded 14.0 or more DKFP in each of their last three games and continue to pile up the turnovers, recording an incredible 12 INTs alone over their last four starts.

This week they face the Cardinals, who have little semblance of a passing attack at the moment. Marquise Brown is injured and unlikely to play which means their top WR will likely be Michael Wilson, who went 0-3 on converting targets into catches last week. This is also an outdoor game for Kyler Murray — who typically plays in a dome — and he has now thrown for under 220 yards in three of his last four games and has four INTs in five games to date.

Assuming the ‘Bears' defense can hold up the run — and they’ve been very good at that recently (3rd in success rate against the run) — then there may not be many points by the Cardinals in this game. Add in the Bears' penchant for landing INTs of late, and you have another great spot to roster the Chicago DST in Week 16, which still looks underpriced at $2,800.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.