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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 16

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

NFL: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

‘Twas the slate before Christmas and amongst all of the touts, not a single one could announce the winning lineup without any doubts.

All were kneeling focused on prayer, in the hope of finding the nine flames to produce a multimillionaire.

Spreads were analyzed while stats were torn to shreds, mostly ending up in dread

But this is a time for holiday and joy, so even if you do not sweep the leg and destroy, have fun and enjoy

Happy holidays to everyone! Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

None of the “stud” running backs are on this main slate but there are a plethora of intriguing tight end options. Very iiiiiiiiinteresting.

There are only nine games on the main slate. NO/LAR play on Thursday. CIN/PIT and BUF/LAC are the Saturday games. NE/DEN is the Sunday night game. LVR/KC, NYG/PHI and BAL/SF play on Monday night.

DraftKings Sportsbook has two games with a total of at least 45 points: DET/MIN (47) and DAL/MIA (51). The IND/ATL is right below at 44.5. There are three games with a total at or below 40 - GB/CAR (36.5), CLE/HOU (40) and WAS/NYJ (37.5), There is no double-digit favorite. Six games are within a field goal: SEA -2.5 over TEN, CLE -2.5 over HOU, NYJ -3 over WAS, ATL -1 over IND, TB -1 over JAX and MIA -1.5 over DAL. There are four home dogs - MIN, TEN, HOU and CAR.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals, $7,100 — Roster ownership percentages are usually spread out at quarterback, but I’m thinking Prescott and Tua will be slightly elevated this week, as the total of 51 is the highest on the slate and that game has the look of being a back-and-forth shootout. I’m going to fade those quarterbacks, though, because I think they can slightly disappoint, especially when factoring in ownership numbers. In addition, I think there’s a chance that it’s the running backs who can get busy.

Therefore, if paying up, I’m going with Fields. He is the engine of the Bears’ offense, both through the air and on the ground, so if the Bears are going to score points, Fields will more than likely be involved. Chicago is implied to score 24 points this week, the fourth-highest, and only .75 fewer than the Cowboys and 2.25 less than the Dolphins.

Arizona is not a good defense. They have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the second-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing touchdowns while being dead-last in pressure rate.

Other Options – Dak Prescott ($7,900), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,800), Jared Goff ($6,900), Trevor Lawrence ($6,600)

Value

Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $5,300 — In his first start for the Vikings this season, Mullens went 26-of-33 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. That was good for 22.12 DKFP. I think he may need to sling it around this week as well, as the Lions will likely be putting up points. Detroit’s implied total of 24.75 is the second-highest on the slate.

While Detroit has been one of the better teams at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, PFF has Minnesota rated as the best in pass protection while Detroit is 30th in coverage.

Mullens isn’t the greatest quarterback and is in the journeyman tier, but he’s seasoned with 26 games played, posting a 66% completion percentage with 29 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.

Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,800), Joe Flacco ($5,500)


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Running Back

Stud

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys, $7,300 — It’s early and things can change, but I’m leaning towards getting my exposure to this game through Mostert. I don’t think you can completely fade this game. The Cowboys have been susceptible to opposing rushing attacks this season. Over the last six games in particular, they have allowed six touchdowns and 773 yards on 167 attempts. For those without a handy dandy abacus, that works out to 4.6 yards per carry. The Bills just smashed them for 266 yards last week. With the threat of the Dolphins passing game, there should be plenty of seams for Mostert to dash through.

Mostert has exceeded 100 yards only twice this season, and those were earlier in the season, but he’s scored a league-leading 18 touchdowns. Over the last four games, he’s scored in every one with three of those with two. On the season, he has 44 red zone opportunities, the fourth-most in the league.

Other Options – Rachaad White ($7,400), Aaron Jones ($6,400)

Value

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers, $5,700 – Remember when Miles Sanders ($4,400) was a sleeper in fantasy drafts because he was signed for good money and would be getting the volume? Those were good times. Sanders now sees around 25% of the snaps while Hubbard has become the hubba hubba man. Over the last three games, he’s received 22, 23 and 25 rushes while getting a total of four targets. The yardage has been nice at 87, 87 and 104 with a two-touchdown game in there. Now he faces a Packers team that has allowed the third-most rushing yards on the season.

Other Options – Ty Chandler ($5,600)


Wide Receiver

Stud

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals, $6,900 — I wrote about how porous the Cardinals’ defense is in the Fields section, and if I like Fields, then you best believe that I’m writing up his number one receiver. Moore has 111 targets on the season and over the last four games since Fields returned from injury, he has garnered eight, 10, 13 and nine targets. On the season, Moore has gone for at least 20 DKFP with a high of 52! He’s not going to be consistent like the juicy higher-priced options on this slate, but he could match or even exceed their production if things break right. At a huge price discount, that’s enticing. Where projected ownership comes in, though, could change the calculus.

Other Options – Tyreek Hill ($9,600), CeeDee Lamb ($9,200), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200), Justin Jefferson ($8,100), Jaylen Waddle ($7,800), Mike Evans ($7,600), DK Metcalf ($6,700), Amari Cooper ($6,400), Calvin Ridley ($6,300)

Value

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, $3,700 – I really like the Lions passing attack this week, especially since it’s been difficult running against Minnesota. The Sun God is obviously the Alpha of the receiving group, but Williams received seven targets last week, hauling in four for 43 yards. He had a wide receiver screen, some intermediate looks both between and outside the hashes and a couple of deep shots off of play action. Williams is going to explode at some point. Why not this week?

Other Options - Tyler Lockett ($5,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500), Zay Jones ($4,200), Michael Wilson ($3,700), Josh Reynolds ($3,300), Darnell Mooney ($3,300)


Tight End

Stud

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears, $5,700 – Writing up this section is usually very easy, as the options are limited. There are a ton of players I like this week, and it made things challenging. It’s early so my thoughts will likely change, especially when projected ownership numbers come out later in the week. That said, I’m leaning towards McBride. He has been the blankie for Kyler Murray ($6,400), garnering 11, nine, nine and seven targets over the last four weeks. He’s scored over 20 DKFP in each of the last two contests and I think the Bears will put up points in this one, which means the Cardinals will have to respond in kind, with McBride being the primary beneficiary. Chicago has allowed the third-most receptions to the position and second-most touchdowns.

Other Options – Sam LaPorta ($6,400), TJ Hockenson ($5,800), Evan Engram ($5,400), David Njoku ($5,300)

Value

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,300 Otton only received two targets last week and is probably fourth on the target totem pole. While the total for this game is only 42.5, there’s a chance it blows up and becomes a back-and-forth affair, as both teams are top five in passing yards allowed. On the season, Otton has received at least five targets in six games with a high of nine. The Jaguars have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends, the third-most in the league.

Other Options – Jake Ferguson ($4,900)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Jets D/ST vs. Washington Commanders, $3,100 – The Jets are top three in both hurry and pressure rate. On the season, they have racked up 39 sacks, six fumble recoveries, 12 interceptions, two safeties and two touchdowns. Now they face a Commanders team that is tops in passing rate with Sam Howell ($6,200) leading the league in interceptions and sacks. Yes, please and thank you.

Other Options – Packers D/ST ($3,900), Browns D/ST ($3,400), Seahawks D/ST ($3,200)

Value

Bears D/ST vs. Arizona Cardinals, $2,800 – On paper, the Bears defense is unappealing. They have given up a ton of passing yards, touchdowns and are near the bottom in both sacks and pressure rate. That said, they have exceeded point expectations 80% of the time this season and have scored double-digit DKFP in each of the last three contests. One reason is that they have been stout against the run, forcing teams to pass, and when teams drop back to pass, that allows for more opportunities for fantasy goodies. I think the Bears offense puts up points in this one, which would force the Cardinals to respond with aggression.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.