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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks Today: NFL Week 15 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.

No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.

OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.

Let’s dive into Week 15.

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Game Stack: Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders

Matthew Stafford ($6,000) — Puka Nakua ($7,300) — Cooper Kupp ($7,800) — Curtis Samuel ($4,600)

This will most certainly be a popular game to stack in Week 15, but it’s for good reason. We have a total hovering around 50.0 points, a Rams passing game that is fully healthy and flourishing, and the worst defense in the league in Washington (32nd in defensive EPA).

Matthew Stafford wasn’t a world-beater for fantasy at the start of the year, but the TDs have started to come much faster and freely as of late. Stafford has now thrown for 10 TDs over his last three games alone and gets the matchup of a lifetime against the Commanders who have ceded the most passing TDs on the season and 300+ passing yards against in three of their last six games.

Certainly, this could be a spot for Kyren Williams ($7,500) to continue his fantasy dominance as well, but if we’re playing for a Stafford-ceiling type of game, double stacking him with his two elite inside-outside receivers is the way to play for maximum output. After nursing an injury for a couple of games, Cooper Kupp was back to full health last week and produced a Cooper Kupp-type game, going for 8-115-1 (10 targets) and 28.5 DKFP against what was thought to be an imposing Ravens secondary.

Rookie Puka Nacua wasn’t terrible last week, but this is a clear bounce-back spot for him as well. He’s averaged 22.0 DKFP at home this year and will face much lessor corners on Washington who have allowed multiple opposing WRs to go for 90+ yards against them twice since Week 8.

Certainly, if Stafford and his two top WRs are balling out it likely means that Washington’s offense is also at least in the market for some cheap garbage time/prevent defense yards. The Rams' defense has outperformed expectations in many respects this year, but last week allowed both Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham to go for 60+ yards and a TD. Curtis Samuel remains a solid value for DFS tournaments in this spot given both his versatility and target rate over the past couple of games (27%, 21%). Samuel has at least four catches in eight games this year and, given his speed in the open field, could certainly be a long-play TD candidate if this game breaks into video game mode at any point.

Quarterback: Will Levis ($5,400), Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Levis has been a rollercoaster for fantasy. He broke out early on producing 26.62 DKFP against Atlanta back in Week 8, but then failed to do much for multiple games — often getting subsided by a faulty offensive line. Levis held up well last week against a top-notch defense in Miami, though, and faces a Houston team that tends to funnel opposing offenses toward the pass in Week 15. The Texans this season have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and rank just 25th in success rate per dropback.

While you don’t want to make too huge a deal of it, this is also a #revenge spot for Levis’ best receiver in DeAndre Hopkins ($6,200) — who has now scored in each of his last two games and makes for a terrific stacking buddy with Levis this week. The Titans' offense is boom-bust but they’re in far more of a boom spot against a very hurting Texans squad — making Levis a good value option at QB.

Running Back

Top End: Rachaad White ($7,000), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

White continues to be the main cog that drives the Tampa Bay offense. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 17.4 rush attempts, scored four TDs, and gone for 20 receiving yards or more in all but one game over that span. This week he plays the Packers who are sub-par at defending the rush. Green Bay has given up the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs and is just 23rd in success rate versus the run on defense.

Add in the fact that the Packers are banged up on offense — with many key receivers questionable — and you may have a spot where the Buccaneers control a lot of this clock with short passes and carries going to White. While his price is up to $7,000, it’s deserved as the second-year back has gone for 16.0 or more DKFP in six straight games now. He’s in a great spot to push for a ceiling-type game this week and makes sense as a core play for Week 15.

Low End: Tyjae Spears ($4,800), Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

It may not feel like it just yet, but the Spears takeover in Tennessee is occurring. He’s played on over 60% of the snaps in each of the past two games and has seen a healthy 14 targets over his last two games as well. This is all happening for a couple of reasons (Derrick Henry is getting old), but the main one is that Spears is #good.

The rookie is fourth in rush attempts that produce rushes of 15 yards or more this season (8.2%) and is also a fantastic receiver who now has three games this year with 40 or more receiving yards. This week he also plays the Texans who have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. It’s a great time to consider Spears as a value target for DFS given his salary has yet to reflect the increased usage or great matchup.

Wide Receiver

Top End: Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200) San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Despite the big spread that exists for this game in the betting markets (SF -12.5) the injuries on the 49ers’ defense do suggest that we may see a closer game than expected — and more points from the Arizona side than expected as well. If that thesis holds then it could mean great things for the prospects for Brandon Aiyuk, who bounced back from a couple of slow outings to post six catches for 126 yards against the Seahawks.

The Cardinals are a poor defense all around, but they really struggle at limiting big plays in the secondary. They’re dead last in success rate against the pass and have allowed an opposing WR to go for 130+ yards receiving against them an incredible five times this season. The game script could flow in a couple of different directions for Aiyuk, but if Arizona does jump out on a weakened 49ers defense, then it holds that a heavier passing day for the 49ers could also transpire as well.

Top Value: Marquise Brown ($5,100), Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Brown (heel) is listed as questionable for this game but returned to limited practice on Thursday and looks likely to play. He’s played through injury a lot this year and head coach Jonathan Gannon suggested early in the week that Brown was in a much better place for Week 15, injury-wise, than he has been in past weeks.

The 49ers are also hurting on defense. They have a lot of starters banged up on that side of the ball including starting corner Charvarius Ward who hasn’t practiced yet this week. Brown has been a disappointment since Kyler Murray ($6,400) came back but this could be the week he breaks out given both his improving health and the declining health of the 49ers’ secondary. He makes for a solid low-owned, upside target in Week 15 GPP lineups.

Tight End: Tucker Kraft ($3,000), Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tucker Kraft is the proverbial last man standing for the Packers. They have three WRs listed as questionable and as of now, it looks likely that Christian Watson (hamstring - questionable) will miss this game. Kraft saw a 90% route rate last week and provided 64 yards on four catches, including one of the biggest plays of the game for the Packers against the Giants.

On top of Kraft being likely to see a solid workload once again, he’ll be playing a funnel-to-the-pass defense in Tampa Bay that ranks 27th in EPA per dropback and has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Kraft looks like a solid bargain at just 3k for DFS as Green Bay stands to have no choice but to feed the third-string TE again with targets in this crucial matchup.

Defense/Special Teams: New York Jets ($2,500) at Miami Dolphins

The Jets may sit around +9.5 underdogs on the DraftKings Sportsbook, but if we’re being honest, the team to worry about here is the Dolphins. They had major O-Line issues against Tennessee who sacked Tua Tagovailoa a season-high five times last week and just placed G Connor Williams on IR. T Terron Armstead is also questionable again and didn’t play last week.

The Jets recorded 5.0 sacks themselves last week and have averaged 3.3 sacks over their last three games. Their secondary was already a tough matchup but the Dolphins now have the added trouble of a less than 100% Tyreek Hill (knee), who is also questionable to play. Add in some potential poor weather and you may have a spot where the ‘Jets' defense can cause multiple turnovers and potentially land a score or two. As a unit, they’ve scored 12.0 or more DKFP in two of their last three outings and set up as a terrific value again in Week 15.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.