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Fantasy Football Picks Today: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 15

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the slate before Christmas. There will be many distractions, mostly of the cheerful kind, but still, we must remain focused and get down to business. These DK streets can get vicious if you are not of the utmost mental fitness. Let’s sit and observe the landscape with a quiet stillness, always being suspicious in order to navigate around the minefields and travel down the path of least resistance. It requires patience and persistence but I am here to offer any and all assistance. May it be nutritious so that you can grab those bags of richness.

The byes have concluded. JINGLE BELLS! JINGLE BELLS!

DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with a total of at least 45 points: DEN/DET (48), SF/ARI (48), WAS/LAR (49.5) and DAL/BUF (51). There are SEVEN games with a total at or below 40 - MIN/CIN (39.5), KC/NE (37), NYJ/MIA (37), NYG/NO (37.5), CHI/CLE (37.5), ATL/CAR (35) and HOU/TEN (38). There is one double-digit favorite: SF -13.5 over ARI. Four games are within a field goal: IND -2.5 over PIT, ATL -3 over CAR, TEN -3 over HOU and BUF -2.5 over DAL. There are two home dogs - NE and CAR.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams, $6,300 — Howell checks all the boxes for me this week. Weather concerns? Niet, as the game is in Los Angeles. Robust fantasy environment? Check. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 49.5 and the Rams should score points against a susceptible Washington defense. Rushing equity? Check, as Howell has scored four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. Access to ceiling? Howell put up 34.98 DKFP against the Eagles six weeks ago. Consistency? Check. Howell has scored at least 20 DKFP in each of the last six weeks. Affordability? Check. While those higher-priced options are akin to a pair of Nikes, those Mikes from the swap meet look similar and get the job done. Finally, the Commanders are passing at the highest rate in the league. Let the fantasy goodies fall down like manna from the heavens!

Other Options – Justin Fields ($7,000), Brock Purdy ($6,800), Jordan Love ($6,200), Matthew Stafford ($6,000)

Value

Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears, $5,500 — There could be a little rain in this game and the total is a paltry 37.5 points. That said, I think this game can exceed point expectations. Justin Fields ($7,000) could do damage with his legs while DJ Moore ($6,900) is excellent against man defense, something the Browns play at the highest rate in the league. If so, then the Browns have no problems letting Flacco sling the ball around. In his first two games of the season, he’s attempted 44 and 45 passes, putting up 17.16 and 25.34 DKFP. The Bears have been pretty stout against opposing rushing attacks, so the path of least resistance is through the air anyway.


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Running Back

Stud

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders, $7,500 — I wasn’t lying when I said that I liked this game. My early thought is to roster Howell and then have Williams and one of either Kupp or Nacua as a bring-back. This Commanders’ defense has been a sieve. Over the last four games, they have allowed 29, 31, 45 and 45 points while giving up 1,184 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 434 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Since Williams returned to action, he’s received 16, 21 and 25 carries, turning them into 143, 88 and 114 yards. He was also targeted a total of 15 times in the passing game. He has no competition for carries, as the snap rate has been at least 90% in the last two games and he’s dominated red-zone looks.

Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), Rachaad White ($7,000), Bijan Robinson ($6,800), Tony Pollard ($6,700)

Value

Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $5,800 – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900) missed Week 14 and still hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday. Elliott was THE guy. Literally, garnering 91% of the running back snaps. He rushed 22 times for 68 yards and hauled in seven of eight targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. If Stevenson is out, then he is too cheap for the expected role and volume.

Other Options – Tyler Allgeier ($4,400)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders, $7,800 — My momma didn’t raise no liar. This is the game for me, as of now, and it will likely be my focus for different ways to stack it. The Commanders have allowed the most passing yards and touchdowns on the season. The 7.2 net yards gained per pass attempt is the most in the league. Kupp had a run of five games in which he scored single-digit DKFP. He was dealing with an injury but it looks like he’s now back and ready to rock and roll. Over the last two games, he’s received eight and 10 targets, scoring a touchdown in both contests and finishing with 115 yards last week.

Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($9,200), Deebo Samuel ($7,700), Puka Nacua ($7,300), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), DJ Moore ($6,900), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,200), Amari Cooper ($6,000)

Value

Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants at New Orleans Saints, $3,700 – The Giants passing attack is not going to provide volume, as Tommy DeVito ($5,000) has not thrown more than 27 passes in any of his five games played. That said, Robinson is playing close to 80% of the snaps and garnered seven targets last week. He also received two rushing attempts, finishing the day with 17.5 DKFP without scoring a touchdown. That ain’t bad, yo.

Other Options - Garrett Wilson ($5,800), Jayden Reed ($4,900), Curtis Samuel ($4,600), Jonathan Mingo ($3,900), Treylon Burks ($3,000), Samori Toure ($3,000) if Doubs/Reed/Watson/Wicks do not play.


Tight End

Stud

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears, $4,700 – Over the last eight games, Njoku received at least six targets in every contest, with four at nine and a high of 15. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in all but one. Last week, he caught six of eight targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns. He’s dominating the snaps at tight end, playing around 80% each week. The matchup is a good one, as the Bears have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points on average to the position. In addition, it’s difficult to run on Chicago, so the offense should tilt more toward the air.

Other Options – George Kittle ($5,800), Trey McBride ($5,200)

Value

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans, $2,900 In the seven games since Will Levis ($5,400) became the starter, Okonkwo received at least six targets in four of them. In the three most recent contests, he’s received six, six and five targets while hauling in at least 45 yards in each contest. These are not mind-blowing numbers, but considering that he exceeded 30 yards receiving in only two of the prior games, we should be throwing a block party. The matchup this week is fantastic, as the Texans have allowed the most targets to the position this season.

Other Options – Tyler Conklin ($3,100), Brevin Jordan ($3,100), Dawson Knox ($2,700)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Falcons D/ST at Carolina Panthers, $3,600 – Bryce Young. End of analysis.

I kid I kid. Not about Young, but about the end of analysis. Young has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 48 times this season. He doesn’t throw with anticipation and often hesitates to let it rip. The Falcons are middle-of-the-pack in blitz rate, but they are 12th in pressure rate. They have scored double-digit DKFP four times this season, with one of those against Carolina. That game was the season opener, though.

Other Options – 49ers D/ST ($4,400), Dolphins D/ST ($4,000), Titans D/ST ($3,700) if Stroud is out

Value

Jets D/ST at Miami Dolphins, $2,500 – The Jets blitz at the second-lowest rate in the yet. But, but, but....the unit is second in hurry rate, fourth in quarterback knockdowns and second in pressure rate. They have exceeded point expectations 80% of the time this season and put up double-digit DKFP six times, with one of those against the Dolphins three weeks ago. These teams are intimately familiar with each other and the Dolphins could be banged up for this one.

Other Options – Rams D/ST ($3,100), Bucs D/ST ($2,900)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.55M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.