Every team played last week but we have four teams on bye, the Broncos, Lions, Jaguars and 49ers for Week 9. And the Chiefs/Dolphins game will be played in the land where water flows down the Rhine. That means only one game with a total of over 45 on the main slate. It’s time to whine!!! No worries, though, as everything will be fine. Blessed are those who read this intro that is full of rhymes. You have my heart for a lifetime. As a reward, I will try my best to, not only, navigate you around the potential landmines, but recommend the players who will have flames next to their names, allowing your rosters to shine and growing your DK accounts larger than my robust waistline. So, without further adieu, it’s showtime!
On DraftKings Sportsbook, there is only one game with a total of at least 45 points: DAL/PHI (46). There are four games with a total below 40 – NYG/LV (37), LAR/GB (39), MIN/ATL (37.5) and ARI/CLE (37.5). There is no double-digit favorite. Five games are within a field goal: KHOU -2.5 over TB, GB -3 over LAR, IND -2.5 over CAR, PHI -3 over DAL and LV -1.5 over NYG. CAR is the only home dog.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
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Quarterback
Stud
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys, $8,000 — The offensive environments don’t look to be fantasy-friendly this week, as there are many low total games. This game has the highest O/U at 46 with tons of talent on both sides of the ball for each team. It wouldn’t surprise me if this game is a defensive, grind-it-out affair. That said, it’s within the range of outcomes that it shoots out as well.
The floor is pretty high for Hurts due to his rushing ability and Brotherly Shove. He’s scored at least 20 DKFP in every game but the opener, with two of those over 30. The Cowboys play man at a high rate and the Eagles have one of the best man-to-man defense busters in AJ Brown ($8,600). Man defenses also provide more seams and opportunities for Hurts to run for chunk plays. If the Cowboys wanted to play more zone, the Eagles’ offensive line would eat up the smaller defensive line, so the Cowboys would likely have to remain in man for most of the game.
The Cowboys blitz at the ninth-highest rate. The Eagles boast one of the best offensive lines and are rated fifth by PFF in pass blocking. When blitzed, Hurts has a 73.3 rating according to PFF. That is only slightly lower than the 77.2 when not blitzed.
Other Options – Dak Prescott ($6,500)
Value
Mac Jones, New England Patriots vs. Washington Commanders, $4,900 — Most roller coasters start at the bottom, slowly ascend upwards then allow gravity to work its magic for the ensuing stomach churn. For Jones, he started from the top, putting up 28.14 DKFP in the opener. He then proceeded to plummet straight down, scoring 14.74 and 13.34 before running off three straight games with single-digit DKFP. Over the last two weeks, though, the Jones Experience has gone back up, as he’s gone for 19.98 and 13.24 DKFP. Now he gets a matchup against a Commanders team that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards and most touchdowns through the air. And they just traded away their two best pass rushers.
Other Options – Derek Carr ($5,700)
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Running Back
Stud
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers, $6,400 — Since returning to action, the Colts have slowly been ramping up Taylor’s playing time. Last week was the first time he received the majority of the snaps (61% vs. 39%) and there’s a chance that number continues to increase. Now Taylor gets to face a Panthers defense that has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, seventh-most yards and second-most rushing touchdowns. The Colts are 2.5 road favorites and are projected for the third-highest implied total at 23.5 points, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Alvin Kamara ($8,100), Saquon Barkley ($7,900)
Value
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans, $5,600 – The Texans’ defense is much improved and has been playing well as of late. I’m not crazy about White, especially at his price tag. But I’m less crazy about the other lower-priced options. At least I know that White will get the bulk of the snaps at running back, as he played in 82% last week and has dominated the action all season. In addition, he’s a factor in the passing game, receiving six and seven targets over the last two weeks. The ceiling is low but there is some semblance of floor.
Other Options – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400), Chuba Hubbard ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys, $8,600 — As mentioned in the Hurts blurb above, the Cowboys play man-to-man defense at a high rate and Brown obliterates that coverage. According to PFF, he has the highest mark against man coverage this season. Oh, my bad. Did I forget to mention that Brown has hauled in at least 127 yards in each of the last six games, with two two-touchdown games during that streak? He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP with the last two over 30 and a high of 41.5 DKFP five games ago.
Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($8,200), Adam Thielen ($7,500), Chris Godwin ($7,000), Chris Olave ($6,300)
Value
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots vs. Washington Commanders, $4,000 – The diminutive Douglas caught the eye of the Patriots at the Shrine game, then they selected him in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. Coming from a small school, it took time to get adjusted and he suffered an injury early on, but it looks like he’s arrived and will be a significant part of the offense going forward. Two weeks ago, he played in 62% of the snaps and caught four of six targets for 54 yards while rushing once for 20 yards. Last week, he played in 77% of the snaps and caught five of seven targets for 25 yards along with one rush for four yards. With Kendrick Bourne done for the season and the matchup a good one, Douglas could be primed for a breakout game.
Other Options – Josh Downs ($5,200), Rashid Shaheed ($4,500), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,100)
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs, Seattle Seahawks, $6,800 – The Seahawks boast one of the best run-defense units in the league, allowing the sixth-fewest yards and fourth-lowest yards per carry. The Ravens pass at the lowest rate in the league, so they are going to try and do what they do, but they will likely have to throw a bit more than they want this week. Andrews is a beau for Lamar in the passing game, garnering the second-most targets and most red zone looks.
Other Options – Jake Ferguson ($4,000)
Value
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans, $3,000 – The upside is limited for Otton, as he’s scored only one touchdown on the year, has exceeded 30 yards in only one game and has two red zone targets on the season. That said, he dominates the snaps, playing in over 96% of the plays in all but one game this season. And that other game was 91%. Over the last two games, he’s received six targets in each contest and now faces a Texans team that has allowed the second-most receptions to the position.
Other Options – Logan Thomas ($3,500), Juwan Johnson ($2,900)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Saints D/ST vs. Chicago Bears, $4,100 – Tyson Bagent ($4,900) has been decent filling in for Justin Fields. While he’s only thrown one touchdown and three interceptions, he’s only been sacked three times and completed 70% of his passes. That was against the Chargers, Raiders and Vikings, though. Now he faces a Saints defense that is one of the better units in the league. While the Saints blitz at the eighth-lowest rate, they are 12th in hurry rate and third in interceptions. The Saints are the biggest favorites on the slate at 7.5 points, so Bagent will likely have to drop back and pass plenty, providing more opportunities for this defense to stuff their bags with fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Browns D/ST ($4,200) if Clayton Tune starts, Ravens D/ST ($3,800), Falcons D/ST ($3,700)
Value
Giants D/ST at Las Vegas Raiders, $2,300 – The Raiders could be in disarray. Wait, maybe they already were! Regardless, Josh McDaniels is no longer guiding the ship so uncertainty permeates throughout the whole organization. All I know is that the Giants blitz at the second-highest rate in the league.
Other Options – Patriots D/ST ($2,900)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
