Both the ALCS and NLCS will be played today, starting at 5:07 p.m. ET with the Phillies and Diamondbacks in Arizona. Next, we’ll see Game 4 of the Astros and Rangers. Let’s take a look at who you should be targeting on this two-game slate.
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, $8,600 - We really don’t have much of a stud/value for this slate, as all the pitchers are priced within $1,600 of each other. I do like Suarez amongst the group against the Diamondbacks. Suarez features a sinker the majority of the time, throwing it 36% of the time. Looking at the projected lineup for the Diamondbacks tonight, they have just a combined .323 wOBA and a .103 ISO against the pitch since last season. Guys like Christian Walker, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo all have a wOBA no higher than .301 since last season. This team not hitting for power against that pitch is one of the biggest reasons I like Suarez.
Jose Urquidy, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, $7,500 - You’re not going to feel great about playing any pitcher tonight, if we’re being honest. Urquidy turned in a solid start during Game 4 of the ALDS against the Twins, allowing two runs on three hits with six strikeouts through 5.2 innings. The Rangers have struck out 25 times in three games already while slashing just .202/.269/.364. I think it’s easy to forget the OVERALL offensive struggles for the Rangers when they seemingly put up crooked numbers when they are scoring. Urquidy is someone I would look toward in this start against the Rangers.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies, $4,500 - I wrote earlier about the struggles some of the members of the D-Backs had against sinkers. Marte is not one of them. Dating back to last season, Marte has a .490 wOBA with a .218 ISO and just a 6.6% K% against that pitch by lefties. He’s been great against lefties overall, especially at home where he has a .443 wOBA, a .253 ISO and a 182 wRC+. I expect Suarez to be the most popular pitcher on this slate, so you could get some decent ownership on these Diamondbacks hitters.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros $6,200 - Seager is the second-most expensive option overall for hitters, trailing only Yordan Alvarez ($6,300). If you look at Urquidy’s numbers overall, as I mentioned, they simply aren’t good. We were focusing more on his recent stats rather than whole season. If you stretch Urquidy’s numbers out, you’ll see a 5.22 FIP with a .329 wOBA and only a 7.5 K/9. Seager has simply raked at home and has a .509 wOBA with a .414 ISO and a 232 wRC+ against righties. With Urquidy relying on a fastball over 40% of the time, Seager is one of the best Rangers’ bats to target.
Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,800 - Stott is one of my favorite bats for tonight and he’s also a great value. Not only does he have solid numbers against righties, but he excelled against both the fastball and sweeper, the two main pitches for Brandon Pfaadt. Stott has a solid .372 wOBA and a .175 ISO against the fastball. Having those type of numbers when he’ll likely have traffic on the basepaths is hard to ignore, especially when he’s one of the cheaper bats in the Phillies lineup.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,400 - Harper is just hitting out of his mind during these playoffs and that’s all you really need to know. Since dating back to the series against the Marlins, Harper is averaging 14.3 DKFP, scoring no less than 7.0 DKFP in every single playoff game. The man is simply on a different level currently. Going up against Pfaadt who has a .365 wOBA and a 5.67 FIP against lefties on the year? What else do you need to know?
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,600 - The pricing on Castellanos is laughable. $4,600 for the second-best hitter on the Phillies right now is a gift. He’s averaging 13.5 DKFP during these playoffs and has scored 10+ DKFP in five of the eight games the Phillies have played. While he’s hit much better at home than he has on the road, Pfaadt has a .376 wOBA at home this season with seven of the 22 total home runs he’s allowed. This is going to be a very short night for the D-Backs starter.
Leody Tavares, Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros, $3,100 - I think it’s safe to say that the Phillies outfielders will dominate the ownership at this position. To mix that up, I do like Tavares. He’s quietly been one of the Rangers more consistent hitters this postseason. Coming into tonight, he’s slashing .320/.469/.560 with three extra base hits of the eight he’s collected. He’s also a threat to swipe a bag, with three through eight games. Priced near the stone minimum, he doesn’t have to do much to return value on a $3,100 salary.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.