It was the last-place Angels (18-34) that earned a series-opening win against the Rangers (24-26) last night. Los Angeles got the best of Jacob deGrom, notching six runs off of the Cy Young winner. Now, the Halos will attempt to take down another standout pitcher in Nathan Eovaldi. Can Texas bounce back this evening in SoCal?
The Rangers are favorites (-148) over the Angels, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s matchup between Texas and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Angels prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Nathan Eovaldi on the hill for Texas. Despite a shaky first few weeks, the veteran is putting together another solid campaign. Through nine outings, he owns a 3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 55 strikeouts (9.1 K/9). Over his last 22.0 innings, Evo has allowed just one earned run (0.41 ERA). He’s given up two earned runs or less in six of his last seven appearances as well. The two-time All-Star loves the splitter, which he’s thrown on nearly 40% of his pitches. Los Angeles has a .193 expected batting average and .273 slugging percentage against that offering.
It’s not as if it takes terrific stuff to flummox this lackluster Angels offense. Los Angeles is putting up 4.04 runs per game, seventh-worst in the sport. To boot, the team has recorded the fourth-worst OPS against right-handed pitching (.671). Eovaldi has only surrendered four runs over his last five meetings with the Halos (1.03 ERA). LA has produced the third-lowest batting average (.226) in baseball, with just four lineup regulars posting a wRC+ above 100. If there’s any optimism for the Angels, they’ve clobbered the league’s eighth-most homers (62). However, Eovaldi excels at inducing batters into ground balls (51.9% GB).
Walbert Urena will get the nod for the home team on Saturday. Just eight games (six starts) into his MLB career, the 22-year-old looks like he belongs. Over 33.1 innings pitched, he’s delivered a 2.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 30 strikeouts (8.1 K/9). It’s early, but the advanced metrics seem to think those numbers are legit. Urena has posted a .193 xBA, 85.9 average exit velocity, 29.5% hard hit rate and 52.6% ground ball rate. All four of those marks rank within the top 88th percentile among qualified pitchers.
LA’s talented rookie will hope to keep the good times rolling against a mediocre Rangers lineup. Corey Seager, the team’s top slugger, is currently sidelined due to lower back inflammation. Even when the shortstop was healthy, this group wasn’t putting up many crooked numbers. Texas is averaging 3.96 runs per game, fifth-worst in the big leagues. Urena comes into this one with confidence, having just tossed six scoreless innings against a good A’s offense. The rookie might be due for some regression, but a home date against a mediocre lineup doesn’t exactly scream ‘danger’.
Rangers vs. Angels pick, best bet
It’s tempting to back the Rangers, equipped with one of the AL’s top arms this evening. Still, we saw how that went on Friday when deGrom got shelled. With that being said, I have more faith in Urena than I do Los Angeles’ hitters. Given the state of these two offenses, there shouldn’t be much scoring in this one.
