The 2025 NFL season is at its midpoint, meaning we are heading into the home stretch for fantasy football. The fight for playoff spots is upon us, so owners should be looking for every possible edge when tweaking their roster. Young wide receivers, for example, often make the difference late in the year, and there is no reason to think the next two months should be any different.
Looking specifically at rookies, there are always a few who break out and emerge as league-winners. The picture is as murky as ever this season, though, so it may take a deeper dive than normal to uncover who is on the verge of taking a massive leap.
How do rookie WRs typically perform?
In 2024, three rookie receivers finished among the top 11 players at their position in fantasy: Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Xavier Worthy made it five rookie wideouts in the top 35, while Jalen McMillan also finished inside the top 50. As for 2023, Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers all finished top 30 at receiver. Tank Dell, Josh Downs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, meanwhile, snuck into the top 50.
And while 2022 didn’t feature any top-20 finishes from rookie receivers, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Christian Watson and George Pickens each made the top 30. Jahan Dotson cracked the top 50, too. Ja’Marr Chase was the No. 1 receiver in fantasy as a rookie in 2021. Jaylen Waddle was WR21 that year, with Amon-Ra St. Brown not far behind at WR23 and DeVonta Smith down at WR30. Elijah Moore also narrowly made the top 50.
Over the past four seasons, there have been an average of 6 rookies to finish inside the top 50 fantasy receivers – and never fewer than five. There are always at least three inside the top 25, as well.
Breaking down WRs from the 2025 NFL Draft
Only three receivers from the 2025 NFL Draft have recorded at least 25 catches through Week 8. They were the first three off the board: Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka is currently WR7 in fantasy, while McMillan is WR18 and Hunter is WR43. Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike – both of whom the Titans took in the fourth round – are WR46 and WR69, respectively. Matthew Golden is WR62, followed by Tez Johnson as WR64 and Tory Horton as WR72.
The Texans have a pair of rookie wideouts who have been moderately productive in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who they scooped up in the second and third rounds. And although both Iowa State products have double-digit catches, over 150 yards and a touchdown so far this season, Higgins is WR77 and Noel is WR82. Luther Burden III has been stuck behind Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore on the Bears’ depth chart, resulting in him ranking as WR84 through seven games. The Chargers’ Tre Harris and the Lions’ Isaac TeSlaa are only now starting to get more run on offense, hitting the midpoint as WR101 and WR118, respectively.
There are a few other highly-drafted receivers who have been even less relevant. The Patriots spent an early third round pick on Kyle Williams, only to have him record a total of 3.8 PPR fantasy points across his first eight games. Tai Felton, who went to the Vikings at the end of the third, has acted almost exclusively as a special teamer to this point in the season. The Raiders’ second rounder, Jack Bech, has contributed just 73 yards on seven receptions.
Which rookie WRs are poised to take a leap in fantasy?
The best bet for a late-season surge into the top 25 is Travis Hunter, given the hype and pure talent on his side. The Jaguars are already giving him more opportunities on offense, sending him out there for 78.2% of snaps from Week 5 to Week 7. The two-way star has seen action on just 27.5% of defensive snaps since Week 4, compared to his 65.2% mark between Weeks 2 and 3. Hunter averaged 11.6 PPR fantasy points per game in the four games leading into Jacksonville’s bye week, and now he has fresh legs for the home stretch.
Golden seems unlikely to break into the top 50, since he failed to take advantage when Christian Watson and Jayden Reed were out. Horton, meanwhile, was trending in the wrong direction prior to the Seahawks’ bye in terms of opportunities and efficiency. Williams is starting from too much of a disadvantage, not to mention the extra mouths that could potentially join the Patriots at the trade deadline.
Ayomanor and Dike will probably be fringe top-50 wideouts. Calvin Ridley’s nagging injury issues should help them take on a larger role, but their ceilings are only so high in the Titans’ offense.
Instead, look to Tez Johnson, who has been WR32 on average since Week 5. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin’s injuries already opened the door for Johnson, who is beating out Kameron Johnson and Sterling Shepard for meaningful looks from Baker Mayfield. Then there are the two Texans. Noel has more targets per route run and yards per route run, but Higgins got 66 snaps to Noel’s 31 in Week 8. While some of that can be attributed to Nico Collins’ absence, Higgins is the more serious red zone threat, giving him a higher ceiling than Noel.
