Not much is guaranteed in life, except for death, taxes, and Jacob deGrom being a good pitcher. By the standards he’s set throughout his possible Hall of Fame career, this season hasn’t been that great, but given his age and the multitude of injuries he’s suffered throughout his career, he’s certainly gotten the job done. He’s been at least as impressive as his contemporary Max Scherzer was at the same age.
Tonight, he’ll make his 12th start of the season when his Texas Rangers open up a three-game road series against the St. Louis Cardinals. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET.
St. Louis will counter deGrom with Michael McGreevy, a pitcher with much less experience but better numbers than deGrom so far this season.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
Texas finished exactly .500 last season after going 78-84 in 2024, so perhaps it’s not a surprise that the Rangers are hovering around that mark again this season, posting a 28-31 record through the first 59 games of the season. Their offense has made some small strides last season, jumping from 26th in OPS in 2025 to 19th so far in 2026 (including the 13th-best mark in May), and they have a slightly positive run differential. Texas has especially gotten solid production from third baseman Josh Jung and utilityman Ezequiel Durán, and it decidedly seems to have won the Marcus Semien-for-Brandon Nimmo swap so far. Like last season, the Rangers have also had both a top-12 rotation and bullpen, as every pitcher with at least 15 innings this season besides Jack Leiter and the injured Cole Winn has a sub-4 ERA.
The Cardinals are over .500, but they have a worse run differential than Texas. This season, St. Louis sits in second in the ultra-competitive NL Central, hoping to break a three-season playoff drought, but it has slowed down slightly, playing just .500 baseball in May. Like the Rangers, the Cardinals have seen a modest offensive leap, climbing from 24th to 17th in OPS, and both rookie JJ Wetherholt and former top prospect Jordan Walker rank in the NL’s top five in WAR. Their rotation has been slightly above-average and their bullpen slightly below-average so far, a reversal of fortunes relative to last season, but they’ve still had some breakout stars, including McGreevy and setup man Gordon Graceffo.
DeGrom started off the season extremely strong, pitching to just a 2.01 ERA through the end of April, but he had a relatively rough May, giving up six earned runs twice and seeing his ERA balloon to a career-high 3.77 overall. There’s still a lot of stuff he does well; he ranks in the league’s top decile in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, which should make life difficult for a St. Louis offense that has employed one of the league’s most aggressive plate approaches and had merely average bat-to-ball skills. The issue is that, as has become a trend later in his career, deGrom has been prone to hard hits, leading the American League in homers allowed and ranking in the bottom decile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, ground ball rate, and average exit velocity, which allow the Cardinals to continue to mash while mitigating their biggest weakness (their ground ball rate). DeGrom’s career ERA is also nearly a run higher on the road, and St. Louis has hit the ball slightly better at Busch Stadium.
Like deGrom, McGreevy had been trending well, with just a 2.10 ERA in his first nine starts of the season, but he’s struggled through his last two outings, allowing a total of 17 hits and eight earned runs across nine innings of work. Despite his elite surface-level numbers, advanced stats don’t paint such a positive picture of McGreevy; he has just a 10th-percentile expected ERA and a sixth-percentile expected batting average. Unlike deGrom, he hasn’t done a great job generating chases, whiffs or strikeouts, which could be a boon for a Texas lineup that has whiffed at the third-highest rate this season. McGreevy has also given up a lot of hard hits, ranking in just the 13th percentile in barrel rate, though the Rangers haven’t barreled as often as their high average exit velocity might suggest. Additionally, the splits aren’t in McGreevy’s favor; he has been slightly worse at home, while Texas has been significantly better both on the road and against right-handed pitchers.
Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Texas Rangers Moneyline (-130)
Despite deGrom’s poor month, advanced numbers suggest that he’s still a much better pitcher than McGreevy is, and with the splits slightly more in his favor than McGreevy’s and a significantly better bullpen behind him, I’ll take him to lead his team to a win through his veteran experience.
Strong Lean: Jordan Walker 1+ Home Runs (+484)
For value, I still like Walker to go deep, given that he has just the fourth-shortest home run odds despite leading the matchup in homers and despite deGrom’s penchant for big flies. DeGrom has mostly thrown four-seamers and sliders to righties, and Walker has posted an impressive .733 slugging percentage against right-handed sliders this season.
