We’ve got a 10-game slate for Tuesday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $200K BatFlip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, $8,600 — Soriano has been unbelievable to start the season, as the ERA is a microscopic 0.24 through 37.2 innings. He has been lucky, though, with a .205 BABIP and 100% strand rate. That said, the FIP is still only 2.22, he’s allowed only one home run and the strikeout rate is a whopping 30.7%, after being in the 20% range the last two seasons. Soriano has decreased the sinker usage from 49% down to 30% while he’s throwing the fastball 23.6% of the time, compared to only 8.6% last season. Chicago is fourth in strikeouts while being 24th in wOBA and wRC+.
Value
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, $7,000 — In his first start of the season, Kelly allowed two earned runs in 5.1 innings. He did walk four and only struck out three. He then got blasted for eight earned runs in 4.1 innings during his second start, walking three and striking out five. Kelly dealt with a back injury, causing him to miss Opening Day. He’s still getting ramped up, so better days are ahead. Milwaukee is 29th in ISO, 26th in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+
INFIELD
Stud
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, $5,300 — Marte has gotten off to a slow start, posting a .238/.298/.381 slash with a .143 ISO. He has a career .191 ISO and the BABIP is only .249, so he’s going to get hot at some point. The walk rate is only 7.9% after being in the double-digits the prior three seasons. Against right-handed pitching this season, the wRC+ is only 81, but the ISO is .173 while the BABIP is only .193. In his career, the wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 111. Chad Patrick is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph with a 21.1 degree launch angle and 9.3% barrel rate. Against left-handed batters this season, the K-BB% is only 2.1% while the FIP is 4.4.
Adam Frazier, Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, $2,800 — Frazier is striking out 31.5% of the time and has a .407 BABIP. Against right-handed pitching, the wRC+ is 132 while the ISO is .216. He didn’t play much the past week because the Angels faced five lefties, but he should be in the lineup for this one. Chicago will have RHP Davis Martin on the mound. The surface numbers look solid with a 2.01 ERA, 16.1% K-BB% and only two home runs allowed in 31.1 innings. The FIP is higher at 3.06, though, while the strand rate is an elevated 86.1%. In addition, the average exit velocity is 92 mph while the bat speed allowed is 73.3 mph. He’s been much worse against lefties with a K-BB% that is 12% higher and a 3.8 FIP compared to only 1.63 against righties.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals, $5,700 — Soto only has 55 plate appearances on the season due to injury. The plate discipline is excellent as always, but the ISO is only .109 while the BABIP is an elevated .351. The average exit velocity of 89.9 mph and 39.5% hard hit rate are both career lows while the launch angle and barrel rate are much lower compared to last season. The road to positive regression starts today as Zack Littell has been bad, posting an 8.61 FIP, 6% K-BB% and 11 home runs served up in only 25 innings. The average exit velocity is 93.4 mph while the barrel rate is 14.9%. Against lefties, the FIP is 12.76, K-BB% is 0% and nine of the 11 home runs have come off the bat of a lefty. The cherry on top is that Washington has one of the worst bullpens in MLB.
Brett Baty, New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals, $3,200 — Yup, we stacking against the Nationals pitching staff. Baty only has a .110 ISO on the season but the average exit velocity is 91.1 mph while the bat speed is 75.1 mph, good for the 86th percentile. Baty’s major malfunction is that he likes to go gopher hunting with a 45.6% ground ball rate. Littell has a 44.7% fly ball rate so maybe opposites attract.
