Gonzaga (17-6, 8-2 WCC) won their latest game over Portland to bounce back from a two-point loss to conference rival Saint Mary’s. The Zags have done well in conference play this season, with their only other loss coming at the hands of Santa Clara. However, they have not fared as well in out of conference play against legitimate challengers, and are 0-5 against Quad 1 opponents this season.
The Zags rank 22nd at KenPom and 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They put up 83 points per game, ranking 17th in the nation, and shoot 50% from the field, ranking fourth in the nation. Graham Ike leads the team with 15 points per game, but all five starters average in the double digits, giving the Bulldogs good scoring depth.
Kentucky (16-6, 6-4 SEC) is a near-perfect match for this Bulldogs offense. The Wildcats also have five starters who average in the double digits, and put up 89.7 points per game, making them the single highest-scoring team in the nation. We can expect this to be a shootout between two talented offenses meeting in Lexington.
The Wildcats’ latest win came over Vanderbilt. Before that, they lost three of four, dropping to Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Kentucky ranks 24th at KenPom and fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. However, their defense has left some things to be desired. They rank 318th in the nation in points allowed per game.
Gonzaga vs. Kentucky odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Kentucky -5.5
Moneyline: Kentucky -250, Gonzaga +205
Pick: Kentucky -5.5
Despite Kentucky’s defensive struggles, I like the Wildcats to cover and win at home here. Their powerhouse offense will be a challenge to keep up with, and the Zags have yet to defeat a Quad 1 opponent this season.