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Is Christian McCaffrey a lock for an anytime TD in Super Bowl 58?

We take a look at the odds for first touchdown scorer available on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the Super Bowl 58 matchup between the 49ers and Chiefs.

Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers runs the ball during the second half against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The 2024 Super Bowl will feature the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl 54. The 49ers hope to come out on top this time with a set of different offensive playmakers, the most notable being running back Christian McCaffrey.

If you are betting touchdown props in the Super Bowl, then McCaffrey is at least in your thought process, because this man is a touchdown machine. Through 18 games, McCaffrey has 18 rushing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns on the season. Let me take my socks off here so I can get the count right . . . yep, that’s 25 touchdowns, or 1.4 TDs per game.

McCaffrey actually had three games where he didn’t find the end zone this season, which illustrates he isn’t a lock to score, but finding the end zone in 83% of your games isn’t too bad. And before getting shut out in Week 9, McCaffrey had scored in 17 straight games. That’s a full season of games where he scored 100% of the time.

Chiefs run defense

The Chiefs, who have had one of the best defenses in the league, will be a challenge, but they are weaker against the run than pass, while also being weaker against receiving running backs than wide receivers. On the season, the Chiefs have allowed just six rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns to running backs, which ranks fourth-best and sixth-worst in the league. Of course, McCaffrey has scored against every kind of defense imaginable, so even if the Chiefs were the best in the league at stopping running backs, McCaffrey would still have a good shot at scoring.

The Chiefs are 27th in run defense DVOA and 21st in DVOA against running backs running routes. I expect McCaffrey to see the ball plenty. Even against the Lions, the No. 1 team in DVOA for rush defense, McCaffrey had 20 carries, which he took for 90 yards and two touchdowns. He added four receptions on five targets, giving him 25 opportunities on the night. I would be floored if he doesn’t get 20 looks in the Super Bowl.

Touchdown odds

The odds of course aren’t great, as betting on an anytime TD from McCaffrey isn’t going to bring back a huge return on your investment. His anytime TD odds are at -205 at the moment, which profits .49 cents on the dollar. But of course, the bet has a high probability of cashing out.

If you want to get a little riskier, you can look at betting that he scores first or last or twice.

Anytime TD: -205
First TD: +380
Last TD: +425
2 TDs: +235
3TDs: +850

On the season CMC has 3 games with zero TDs, 8 games with 1 TD, 5 games with 2 TDs, 1 game with 3 TDs and 1 game with 4 TDs. He can do it and if the 49ers can win this game, I would expect there is a real chance of multiple McCaffrey scores.

Here’s a look at the full list of available odds for first, last and anytime TD scorer props available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Single TD Props

Player First TD Last TD Anytime TD
Player First TD Last TD Anytime TD
Christian McCaffrey +380 +425 −205
Isiah Pacheco +550 +550 −135
Travis Kelce +600 +550 −120
Rashee Rice +800 +700 +105
Brandon Aiyuk +900 +1000 +140
Deebo Samuel +900 +950 +140
George Kittle +900 +1000 +150
Patrick Mahomes +2200 +2200 +390
Justin Watson +2800 +2800 +450
SF 49ers D/ST +2800 +2500 +500
KC Chiefs D/ST +3000 +2500 +550
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +3000 +2800 +550
Marquez Valdes-Scantling +3000 +2800 +600
Kadarius Toney +3000 +3500 +650
Jauan Jennings +3000 +3000 +550
Brock Purdy +3000 +3500 +600
Elijah Mitchell +3000 +3000 +650
Skyy Moore +3500 +3500 +650
Noah Gray +4000 +3000 +700
Kyle Juszczyk +4500 +4500 +900
Ray-Ray McCloud III +5000 +4500 +950
Mecole Hardman +5500 +5500 +1100
Richie James Jr. +5500 +5000 +1100
Charlie Woerner +5500 +6000 +1300
Ronnie Bell +6000 +6000 +1400
Jordan Mason +6000 +7000 +1400
Justyn Ross +6500 +6000 +1400
Chris Conley +7000 +6000 +1300
Blake Bell +9000 +9000 +2200
Brayden Willis +9000 +11000 +2500
La'Mical Perine +11000 +9000 +2200
No Touchdown Scorer +16000 +16000

This article can also be found in our Ultimate Guide to Super Bowl 58, presented by Frank’s Red Hot.