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Heat vs. Warriors pick against the spread, over/under for Thursday, December 28

We go over some of the best betting options for Thursday’s matchup between the Heat and Warriors.

Golden State Warriors v Denver Nuggets
Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors reacts after hitting a three pointer against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on December 25, 2023 in Denver, Colorado.
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images

Update: Butler is out, Lowry is out but Robinson is in. Martin has been formally ruled out, while Richardson is still doubtful. The Warriors are now 4.5-point favorites and I’m still rolling with Golden State as the ATS pick. The total is 228.5 and I’m still going with the over here.


The Miami Heat (18-12) will look to keep their winning ways going when they head West to take on the Golden State Warriors (15-15) Thursday evening. The Heat have ripped off three wins in a row, while the Warriors saw their five-game winning streak end on Christmas Day at the hands of the Nuggets. This is the first meeting between these teams this season.

Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson are questionable for Miami while Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson are considered doubtful. Draymond Green remains suspended for Golden State and Gary Payton II is still out with a long-term injury.

The Warriors are 3.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 228.5. Golden State is -155 on the moneyline while Miami is +130.

Heat vs. Warriors, 10 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Warriors -3.5

Golden State’s early struggles at home this season were well documented but the Warriors have actually been on the right side of their last eight games at Chase Center. They’re starting to get that mojo back, and that might be enough to get them into the playoffs. Golden State has covered in its last four games, and five of its last six. With the Heat having a loaded injury report and Butler’s status truly up in the air, I like Golden State to win and cover at home Thursday.

Over/Under: Over 228.5

The Warriors are scoring 122.5 points per game over their last eight home games. They’ve gone over five of those eight totals, but they’d be 7-1 to the over on this line. The Heat have gone over their totals in five of the last six games, although only one line was set higher than this. I believe the Heat do have enough offensively with Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Jaime Jaquez Jr. to keep pace with Golden State’s offense, leading to the over hitting.