The 2023 NFL regular season has four weeks remaining and two players are emerging as favorites to take home the MVP award. Coming out of Week 14, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy have the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Prescott is the current favorite with +160 odds following the Dallas Cowboys 33-13 thumping of the Philadelphia Eagles. Prescott had the third best odds coming into Sunday at +350. Against Philly, he threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns. Jalen Hurts had been ahead of Prescott, but he struggled to the tune of 197 passing yards and 39 rushing yards with no touchdowns. It was not an “elimination” game between the two QBs given the full month of football left, but it allowed Prescott to put some space between them.
Purdy entered Sunday as the favorite with +200 odds to win the MVP award, and he remains at +200 following the San Francisco 49ers 28-16 win over the Seattle Seahawks. It was a comprehensive team effort, and the plethora of weapons at Purdy’s disposal is likely why he slipped behind Prescott.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is also in the hunt, but for the time being, it’s a Prescott/Purdy horse race. The question in all this becomes, “Which team would be worse if you replaced their quarterback with a replacement-level QB?” You could also frame it as, “How would each team do if you swapped the two QBs?”
If Purdy was on the Cowboys and Prescott was on the 49ers, I suspect the 49ers would might not fall off at all. If Purdy was on the Cowboys, I suspect they would not be as good. Purdy is a very good quarterback, but Kyle Shanahan is superior to Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer. Would Purdy be nearly as good without Shanahan in his corner?
It’s entirely a hypothetical, but in a race as close as this, it’s reasonable to consider what a swap might mean. The 49ers thumped the Cowboys and Purdy looked superior to Prescott in the game, but this is about total value to the team and not just head-to-head wins. I suspect some voters will choose Purdy over Prescott in part because of San Francisco’s win over Dallas, but I’m inclined to vote Prescott over Purdy as MVP.