On this week’s Underdogs podcast, Peter and Jordan break down Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL and also discuss some early potential March Madness underdogs!
The guys started by giving their picks for Super Wild Card Weekend. A marquee matchup will be the Dolphins traveling to a FRIGID Arrowhead on Saturday night to take on the Chiefs.
While much of the focus has been on the potential for snow on Thursday night into Friday (and again on Sunday), the extreme cold coming in this weekend will also be very dangerous. Winds chill values Friday through Tuesday will range from 10 to 30 below zero. pic.twitter.com/2Yk1D4eqJV— NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) January 10, 2024
Given the temperatures and the fact that Miami is coming from South Florida, Jordan says most people are probably thinking about taking the under, currently set at 43.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and going against the Dolphins, currently 4.5-point underdogs, on Saturday night. But what does he think about that thinking? It’s BS!
Jordan says warm weather and dome teams traveling to an environment below 32 degrees in the playoffs are 11-13-1 against the spread. In other words, Jordan says if you were betting reflexively against them you wouldn’t be making any kind of profit. Dolphins coach Mke McDaniel noted this week that playing in the cold could either become an excuse or it could galvanize a team.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel's thoughts on playing in a historically cold playoff game Saturday in Kansas City— Yianni Kourakis (@WPBF_Yianni) January 10, 2024
Game is projected to be one of coldest in league's history.#Dolphins #Chiefs @WPBF25News pic.twitter.com/G4W7Nejm0Z
More interestingly, cold weather tilts toward the under, right? NOT SO FAST, my friend! Jordan points out that over the past two decades, playoff games with the O/U set at 45 points or fewer and the temperature below 25 degrees, the over is 14-4-1. That means the weather is baked into the spread and O/U total! And Peter adds that when you drop the temperature to 15 degrees or below, it goes to 5-2. Let’s not forget that the Bills put up 47 points against the Patriots two years ago in brutal conditions.
So Jordan is just saying don’t reflexively go with conventional wisdom in this matchup. Jordan says that there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the Dolphins, many of which were discussed by Dan Le Batard and crew earlier this week. Jordan points out that Miami is banged up and hasn’t played well against good teams, although it should be noted the Chiefs haven’t been great of late either. He doesn’t look at either of these teams as true Super Bowl contenders at this point, but he does think there is some value here in the over.
Peter says on their best day, the Dolphins could beat anybody but not only are they dealing with injuries but they’re just 1-5 against playoff teams and have been outscored 196-101. Peter says Miami has feasted on bad teams this season, but unfortunately for the Dolphins, there are no bad teams in the playoffs. And that makes him very worried about them.
NFL Wild Card Weekend & Early NCAA Tourney Underdog Watch
- On this week’s episode of “Underdogs,” Jordan and Peter preview the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend. Will the Miami Dolphins be affected by a 9-degree forecast in Kansas City? The guys find some surprising numbers to answer that question. Plus, it’s never too early to start thinking about NCAA tourney upsets: Which college hoops teams should you be watching now to get a leg up on your bracket come March?
Watch the full episode below!
Be sure to check out more episodes of Underdogs on the Le Batard and Friends YouTube page and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! You can also follow Peter on X at @PeterKeatingNJ and Jordan at @JordanBrenner.
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