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Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson: Live updates, round-by-round scoring, winner for UFC 279

We break down pre-fight odds and provide round-by-round scoring for Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson in a battle of fan favorite welterweights at UFC 279.

Nate Diaz during UFC 263 at Gila River Arena Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Update 12:06 a.m. ET The fighters are on their way to the cage, and we’re about to be underway on the Las Vegas Strip!

UFC 279 is coming to fight fans live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night, and the main event has seem some tumult over the past 24 hours. Welterweight contender Khamzat Chimaev was going to face Nate Diaz in what is likely the latter’s final bout with UFC. However, weigh-in issues changed that fight and two other fights on the main card.

Chimaev showed up 7.5 pounds overweight and was bumped down the card to a co-feature bout with Kevin Holland at a catchweight. Tony Ferguson, who was scheduled to fight Li Jingliang, has moved into the main event. This gives us two fan favorites nearing the end of their respective careers.

Ferguson comes into the bout a -125 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, but has lost four straight bouts. He last fought in May, suffering a second round knockout at the hands of Michael Chandler at UFC 274. Diaz is a +105 underdog and has lost two of his last three bouts, including most recently a unanimous decision loss to Leon Edwards at UFC 263 in June 2021.

We will update this article with the live round-by-round scoring and relevant video once the fight ends.

Moneyline (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nate Diaz: +105
Tony Ferguson: -125

Method of victory

Diaz to win by KO/TKO/DQ: +475
Diaz to win by submission: +700
Diaz to win by decision: +250
Draw: +5000
Ferguson to win by KO/TKO/DQ: +250
Ferguson to win by submission: +900
Ferguson to win by decision: +240

Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson round-by-round results

Round 1: 10-9 Diaz

A closer round where both fighters landed about 20 significant strikes each all in stand-up, but the blood leaking from Ferguson’s leg after his initial charge when the bell sounded makes the difference here.

Round 2: 10-9 Diaz

A bit more definitive from the 37-year-old in the second, as he leads 36-16 on strikes to the head, and it shows on Ferguson’s face. He seems to be quicker despite the reach disadvantage, and is holding the center of the cage. No takedowns or even shots as of yet.

Round 3: 10-9 Diaz

Both fighters have cuts on their shins that are just brutal, and Ferguson’s foot is completely covered in blood. This has turned into a Muay Thai battle, but Diaz is ahead at least 2-1 for now.

It feels like the first broken leg is going to lose this one.

Round 4: Nate Diaz wins by submission (guillotine choke) at 3:00 of the fourth round